(Bloomberg) — Gold jumped the most since February as prospects for a deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz reduced expectations for Federal Reserve rate hikes, while a break above a key technical resistance level fueled additional buying.
Bullion advanced more than 4% to around $4,250 an ounce, after posting small gains in the first two sessions of the week. Silver also climbed. US President Donald Trump said a Hormuz deal is possible as early as Wednesday, as expectations build for an arrangement that allows for the reopening of the critical waterway. The dollar pushed lower while US oil extended losses.
Markets are now fully pricing in a single US rate increase by year-end, down from two as recently as last week. Less monetary tightening is generally positive for precious metals including gold, which generate no yield.
Gold’s rally gained momentum after prices broke above a key technical resistance level, catching up with platinum, which made a similar breakout a day earlier, according to Nicky Shiels, head of metals strategy at MKS PAMP.
Shiels expected gold and other assets investors often buy when they expect a weaker dollar or higher inflation to continue climbing ahead of the Fed’s September meeting. Gold spent much of the past few weeks trading sideways after a strong rally earlier this year, leaving room for prices to move higher again, she added.
Gold has fallen by nearly a fifth since the US-Iran war began in late February. The conflict has sent energy prices soaring, stoked inflationary pressures and raised the likelihood that rates will stay higher for longer. Fed officials opted to keep policy unchanged for the fifth straight time when they met last week, even as three dissenters favored a hike.
Meanwhile, Fed Governor Lisa Cook repeated a message that she is ready to raise rates if inflation doesn’t slow, warning that policymakers may not have the luxury of waiting before inflation returns to their 2% target. While Cook backed the decision to hold rates steady at the Fed’s July policy meeting, she cautioned that the longer inflation remains above the central bank’s goal, the tougher the job will be to rein it in.
Spot gold gained 4.2% to $4,248.45 an ounce at 4:12 p.m. in New York. Silver was 4.2% higher at $62.07 an ounce. Platinum was little changed and palladium advanced. The Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index, a gauge of the US currency, edged lower.
–With assistance from Preeti Soni, William Clowes and Wendy Wells.
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