(The opinions expressed here are those of the author, a market analyst for Reuters.)
NAPERVILLE, Illinois, May 11 (Reuters) – When it comes to Chicago corn futures, speculators typically hold on to heavily bullish corn bets for an extended period. Ditching them after just a few months is unusual.
But investors might be bearish heading into Monday’s reports from the U.S. Department of Agriculture after global trade uncertainties spurred atypical bouts of corn selling earlier this year.
In the week ended May 6, money managers slashed their net long in CBOT corn futures and options to 13,893 contracts from 71,329 a week earlier. That is their least bullish corn view since they first established the net long six months ago, and it is notably off the year’s high of more than 360,000 contracts.
Most-active CBOT corn futures fell 3.1% in that period before declining another 1.3% between Wednesday and Friday.
Daily trade estimates suggest speculators are net short corn heading into this week.
On average, analysts expect USDA on Monday to project 2025-26 U.S. corn ending stocks near 2 billion bushels, up 40% on the year due to a massive acreage.
Money managers trimmed their net short in CBOT wheat futures and options in the week ended May 6, but their views remain strongly bearish for any time of year at 113,734 contracts.
Russian wheat has dominated the export market, keeping global prices in check. Most-active CBOT wheat on Friday notched its lowest settle since August 2020.
Top exporter Russia and neighbor Ukraine may not harvest a stellar crop this year, which could pressure global wheat supplies into 2025-26. But China’s general retreat as a global grain importer has alleviated some of the supply concerns.
However, extreme heat in China’s wheat belt may have recently spawned some purchases out of Australia and Canada.
Analysts see 2025-26 global wheat stocks largely unchanged from 2024-25.
Money managers last week further extended what had been a record net short in Kansas City wheat futures and options. They also continue carrying very bearish views in Minneapolis wheat.
In the week ended May 6, money managers cut their net long in CBOT soybean futures and options to 21,870 contracts from 38,202 in the prior week. July futures rose 1% over the last three sessions, so funds might remain bullish heading into the week.
Analysts expect 2025-26 U.S. soybean supplies to be similar to 2024-25. But global stocks are expected to rise, especially with Brazil likely expanding planted area for a 19th consecutive year.
Chinese demand will continue to be a wildcard heading into 2026, particularly amid the top soybean importer’s slowing economic growth. Stagnant Chinese soy usage plus a huge Brazilian crop could make a U.S.-China trade war more tolerable for Chinese bean importers.
Money managers pushed their net short in CBOT soybean meal futures and options to another all-time high through May 6. That record position of 103,457 contracts resulted despite a handful of new gross longs entering the market.
Funds cut their net long in CBOT soybean oil futures and options through May 6 to 56,738 contracts from 63,387 a week earlier. That snapped a five-week streak of net buying, which was supported by strong export demand for U.S. soyoil.
Back in February, USDA’s preliminary 2025-26 projections suggested that U.S. soybean meal exports would stay on their record pace as processing capacity continues to expand. Soybean oil exports were also expected to remain similarly strong as in the current year.
Karen Braun is a market analyst for Reuters. Views expressed above are her own.
