The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to extend losses and open lower on Monday, following a slump in global markets as the US-Iran war entered its fifth week, driving up crude oil prices and inflation worries.
Asian markets traded sharply lower, while the US stock market tumbled last week, with the Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq each suffering their fifth straight weekly decline, the longest such streak in nearly four years.
This week, investors will focus on key stock market triggers, including the US-Iran war and any ceasefire talks, crude oil prices, trends in FII flows, gold and silver prices, and other key domestic and global macroeconomic data releases.
On Friday, the Indian stock market suffered strong losses, extending their weekly losing streak to the fifth consecutive week.
The Sensex crashed 1690.23 points, or 2.25%, to close at 73,583.22, while the Nifty 50 settled 486.85 points, or 2.09%, lower at 22,819.60.
“Given the prevailing geopolitical uncertainty and the scheduled expiry of March derivatives contracts, volatility is expected to remain elevated. Participants are advised to maintain a cautious approach, avoid aggressive positioning, and focus on disciplined risk management while adopting a selective, stock-specific trading strategy,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:
Asian Markets
Asian markets crashed on Monday amid no signs of an end to the US-Iran, which entered its fifth week. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 3.97%, while the Topix plunged 3.9%. South Korea’s Kospi plunged over 5%, while the Kosdaq tanked 3.97%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening.
Gift Nifty Today
Gift Nifty was trading around 22,555 level, a discount of nearly 261 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices.
Wall Street
US stock market tumbled on Friday, with each of the three major US indexes closing at their lowest levels in over seven months and the Dow confirming it was in correction territory.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average plunged 793.47 points, or 1.73%, to 45,166.64, while the S&P 500 declined 108.31 points, or 1.67%, to 6,368.85. The Nasdaq Composite closed 459.72 points, or 2.15%, lower at 20,948.36.
Nvidia stock price declined 2.17%, Amazon shares dropped 4.02%, Microsoft share price fell 2.51%, Meta stock price tanked 4.02%, while Tesla stock price shed 2.76%.
US-Iran War
The US-Iran war has crossed the one-month mark, with the conflict showing no signs of resolution. The Iran-backed Houthis of Yemen joined the war, sparking fears of further disruption to global trade amid the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has indicated a willingness to seize Iran’s critical oil infrastructure, including the export hub of Kharg Island.
US Consumer Sentiment
US consumer sentiment eased to a three-month low in March. The University of Michigan’s Surveys of Consumers said its Consumer Sentiment Index dropped to a final reading of 53.3 this month, the lowest reading since December, from 55.5 earlier. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index easing to 54.0. It was at 56.6 in February.
RBI
The Reserve Bank of India announced new rules capping the open positions banks can hold in the onshore currency market at $100 million at the end of each trading day. The new rules will be effective April 10.
Japanese Bond Yields
Japanese government bonds (JGBs) slumped, sending yields to a near three-decade high. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 2 basis points (bps) to 2.390%, a level not seen since February 1999. The five-year yield rose 0.5 bps to 1.820%.
BOJ Meeting Minutes
Bank of Japan policymakers debated further rate hikes, with some flagging the chance of steady or faster-than-expected increases as the US-Iran war drove up oil prices and stoked inflation, a meeting summary showed, Reuters reported.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices jumped as the US-Iran war showed no signs of easing. Brent crude oil price surged 3.10% to $116.06 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures gained 3.17% to $102.80.
Gold Rate Today
Gold prices declined, erasing its first weekly gain since the war in the Middle East began. Spot gold price fell 1.3% to $4,436.63 an ounce, while silver prices dropped 1.9% to $68.43 an ounce.
(With inputs from Reuters)
