Expert view on markets: Pawan Jain, the founder and chairman of Ashika Group, believes the long-term India story remains strong and expects continued momentum in sectors aligned with structural growth themes. In an interview with Mint, Jain shared his views on the Indian stock market, key challenges and equity investment strategy. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:
How do you see the Indian stock market’s performance in the first half of CY25?
The Indian stock market performed well in the first half of CY25, showing resilience amid global uncertainty.
Strong domestic demand, government-led capex, and steady sectoral growth, especially in banking and infrastructure, have supported investor confidence.
Both domestic and foreign investors remain optimistic about India’s long-term potential.
While some valuations are elevated, the overall outlook remains positive heading into the second half of the year.
Would the second half be better? Can we see a double-digit return this year?
There is cautious optimism for the second half of CY25. With policy continuity, strong domestic fundamentals, and improving global sentiment, the environment remains supportive for equities.
If earnings growth stays on track and global headwinds remain contained, a double-digit return for the full year is certainly within reach.
That said, markets may see intermittent volatility, and investors should remain disciplined.
The long-term India story remains strong, and we expect continued momentum in sectors aligned with structural growth themes.
What are the key challenges for the domestic market?
While the outlook is strong, a few challenges remain. Global uncertainties and interest rate movements can impact capital flows.
Domestically, inflation, especially in food and energy, needs close monitoring.
Valuations in certain sectors are stretched, and the timely execution of policy measures is essential.
That said, India’s fundamentals remain solid, and with prudent management, we can effectively navigate these risks.
What should be our equity investment strategy? Is it time to focus on value or Momentum?
A balanced approach works best in the current environment. Momentum has delivered in recent months, driven by strong domestic flows and sectoral tailwinds.
However, with valuations rising, it is equally important to keep an eye on value.
Investors should focus on fundamentally strong businesses with earnings visibility, while remaining selective in high-growth pockets.
Staying diversified and disciplined will be key to navigating the rest of the year effectively.
What is driving the strong influx of retail investors? What does it mean for the market?
The strong retail participation is driven by greater financial awareness, digital access to markets, and the rise of systematic investing through mutual funds and SIPs.
Younger investors are entering early, with a long-term mindset, which is a positive shift.
This growing retail base adds depth and stability to the market. It also makes the market
more resilient to global shocks, as domestic flows increasingly offset external volatility. Over time, this broad-based participation will help mature our capital markets further.
India’s wealth management space appears to be at an inflexion point due to increased retail participation. What are the opportunities and challenges for this space?
India’s wealth management industry is indeed at a pivotal stage. Rising affluence, greater financial literacy, and digital access are bringing more first-time investors into formal financial channels.
This presents a significant opportunity to expand services beyond traditional HNIs to a broader, emerging affluent segment.
The challenge is to build trust, deliver personalised advice at scale, and ensure regulatory compliance in a rapidly evolving landscape.
Technology will play a critical role in bridging this gap, but so will investor education and transparent practices.
Done right, wealth management in India has the potential to become a key driver of long-term financial inclusion and capital formation.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
