Expert view on markets: Vinit Bolinjkar, Head of Research at Ventura Securities, says India’s healthy economic growth, robust corporate earnings and steady inflows from domestic institutional investors have supported the Indian stock market. He, however, is cautiously optimistic about the domestic market for June 2025. In an interview with Mint, Bolinjkar shares his views on markets, key triggers and five stocks to buy for the next one year. Here are edited excerpts of the interview:
Can Nifty 50 go beyond 26,000 in June?
The Nifty 50 is demonstrating notable resilience, having recently surpassed the significant 25,000 mark in late May 2025.
This strength is underpinned by several positive domestic factors: India’s healthy macroeconomic indicators, robust corporate earnings from the recent quarter showing continued momentum, and steady inflows from domestic institutional investors.
Further bolstering sentiment, the RBI announced a substantial record dividend of ₹2.69 lakh crore to the government in May 2025, and the monsoon season has commenced, reportedly on an early to normal schedule according to IMD.
Looking towards June 2025, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic. While the market digests recent gains, further upward movement towards the 26,000 level would be a significant next step.
What are the key tailwinds and headwinds for the domestic market?
The Indian equity market enjoys several structural tailwinds. These include strong GDP growth, stable fiscal and external accounts, buoyant high-frequency indicators like GST collections and PMI, and strong domestic liquidity from mutual fund SIPs.
Additionally, the government’s capex push and formalisation of the economy continue to support long-term growth.
However, there are notable headwinds, too—elevated valuations, especially in mid- and small caps, pose risks of correction.
Global concerns like US inflation, uncertainty around rate cuts, and geopolitical tensions can also trigger volatility.
Furthermore, rural consumption remains under pressure due to weather uncertainty and high food inflation, which could weigh on consumption-driven sectors.
Lastly, election-related volatility could lead to short-term swings in sentiment.
What is behind the renewed interest in mid and small-cap segments?
The recent rally in mid and small-cap stocks has been significantly supported by retail and HNI participation, evident from surging volumes and mutual fund inflows into small-cap schemes.
However, it is not just retail froth—there is genuine earnings growth in many companies, especially those linked to manufacturing, defence, railways, and infrastructure.
Several promoters have increased their stakes, suggesting long-term confidence. That said, valuations in many pockets are rich and call for careful stock selection.
While the broader index might seem expensive, opportunities still exist in under-researched companies with strong balance sheets, good governance, and clear earnings visibility.
Investors must stay selective and avoid chasing momentum blindly.
What is your assessment of Q4FY24 earnings?
Q4 earnings were largely in line with street expectations, but there were positive surprises in some pockets.
Banks and NBFCs continued their strong performance with healthy loan growth, stable asset quality, and robust NIMs.
Capital goods and industrial companies reported strong order books and execution, while the auto sector delivered margin improvement, aided by lower input costs.
On the flip side, IT services disappointed due to weak discretionary tech spending and delays in deal ramp-ups.
Consumer staples saw sluggish rural demand, and some cement players struggled with weak pricing trends in certain regions.
Among PSUs, select companies like NTPC, BEL, and BHEL surprised positively, triggering earnings upgrades and valuation re-ratings. Overall, earnings growth remains broad-based, with cyclicals and investment-driven themes outperforming.
Is the Indian growth story still compelling for long-term investment?
Yes, India’s long-term structural growth story remains compelling and globally attractive.
Driven by a young population, rapid digital adoption, formalisation of the economy, and a shift in global supply chains towards India (China+1, Europe+1 strategies), the country is well-positioned to sustain 6–7 %+ real GDP growth.
The government’s continued thrust on infrastructure, PLI-linked manufacturing, and digital financial inclusion is a further enabler.
Investors looking at long-term themes can participate through sectors such as private banking, capital goods, real estate, renewables, and defence.
Additionally, focused bets in mid and small-cap companies with niche capabilities can generate alpha. Building a diversified portfolio across these structural themes, with a three to five-year view, remains an attractive investment strategy.
Please suggest some stock ideas for the next one year.
1. HBL Engineering
HBL Engineering is gaining traction in defence electronics and railway safety systems, benefiting from India’s infrastructure and indigenous defence push. Strong order visibility, operating leverage, and niche capabilities support earnings growth.
2. Thomas Cook (India)
Thomas Cook is benefiting from a rebound in outbound travel and a strong recovery in MICE and forex services. Operational efficiency and a strong brand recall offer room for margin expansion and earnings growth.
3. Adani Green Energy
Adani Green is a leader in renewable energy with strong capacity expansion and long-term PPAs ensuring cash flow visibility. Deleveraging efforts and India’s clean energy focus make it a structural long-term play.
4. Welspun Living
Welspun Living is witnessing export recovery and expanding in domestic branded home textiles. Easing raw material costs and diversification into newer geographies support earnings and margin improvement.
5. HDFC Bank
India’s largest private bank, HDFC Bank, remains a core holding with a strong deposit franchise, superior asset quality, and rising traction from its merger with HDFC Ltd.
Read all market-related news here
Read more stories by Nishant Kumar
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly, and circumstances may vary.
