Radhavi Deshpande, Chief Investment Officer for Kotak Mahindra Life Insurance, is positive about the Indian stock market. She says stabilising earnings estimates and steady domestic liquidity further reinforce the positive outlook. In an interview with Mint, Deshpande said earnings momentum in small-caps should pick up, paving the way for renewed investor interest and performance in both mid and small-cap segments. Edited excerpts:
What are the key triggers that will move the market in 2026?
After two years of relatively muted earnings, reflecting soft nominal growth, we see conditions turning more supportive.
With fiscal and monetary steps in place to stimulate activity, and market valuations broadly in line with long‑term averages, returns should track the improvement in corporate earnings.
Key triggers will be the continued ease‑of‑doing‑business reforms, like lowering compliance costs and streamlining approvals and progress on trade agreements with major partners such as the US, the European Union, and Australia.
What are the key factors that indicate earnings could improve from the December quarter?
The earnings outlook is improving, supported by strong macro indicators and consumption trends. GDP growth remains robust, aided by fiscal stimulus, tax benefits, and accommodative monetary policy.
Sectoral recovery in financials, industrials, and automobile, along with margin expansion from cost optimisation, adds confidence.
Consumption indicators are encouraging, passenger vehicle sales surged over 25% YoY, two-wheelers and tractors posted double-digit growth, and commercial vehicle volumes rose sharply, signalling rural and infrastructure strength.
Stabilising earnings estimates and steady domestic liquidity further reinforce the positive outlook.
When can we expect fresh momentum in mid and small-caps?
Mid-cap stocks have largely kept pace with large caps. The valuations of many mid-cap companies are reasonable today versus earlier; they will provide a decent return over a 2-5 year horizon.
On the other hand, small caps have lagged due to two key factors: slower nominal growth and the disproportionate impact of U.S. sanctions on smaller companies.
This has resulted in weaker earnings growth for small caps compared to large caps.
However, we expect this trend to reverse as both headwinds ease. With nominal growth stable to improving and external pressures moderating, earnings momentum in small-caps should pick up, paving the way for renewed investor interest and performance in both mid and small-cap segments.
Q2 real GDP was strong, but there was softness in nominal GDP. How should investors see it?
The softness in nominal GDP primarily reflects lower inflation, driven by easing food prices and China’s dumping in non-US markets due to US sanctions. This is more a price effect than a growth concern.
We expect inflation to normalise as trade disruptions ease, while global economic momentum should strengthen with monetary stimulus announced by central banks in 2025.
Investors should view this as a temporary phase, with real growth intact and nominal recovery likely in the coming quarters.
Nominal softness also means less pressure on prices, giving RBI space to keep easy policy conditions for longer, a positive for growth push and bonds.
Do you see value in the IT sector? What should be our strategy for the sector?
The IT sector has faced growth challenges as global tech spending shifted toward AI initiatives. However, this trend creates a significant opportunity for Indian IT companies in implementing AI-driven applications.
Additionally, leveraging AI for solution delivery can drive cost optimisation and efficiency.
After four years of underperformance, valuations have become reasonable, making some companies in this sector attractive.
We believe investors should focus on companies actively investing in AI capabilities to capture emerging opportunities and position themselves for long-term growth.
What are your expectations from the interest rate trajectory of the RBI? What does it mean for the economy and the markets?
Right at the start of December, the RBI lowered the repo rate by another 25 bps to 5.25 %, while maintaining a neutral stance, signalling that the central bank continues to have the flexibility to either ease further or pause, depending on incoming data.
In the medium-term, if inflation remains benign and growth continues to soften only modestly, the RBI has room to cut once more, by another 25 bps, data enabling in 2026.
Banks can look forward to adequate to easier liquidity conditions, bond yields might soften as RBI resumes liquidity measures with the December announcement to inject 1 lakh crores through OMOs and $5 billion USD/INR swap with an expectation of more, if required.
Borrowers to benefit with cheaper loans – home, auto, MSME credit could see reduced EMIs.
Markets are likely to get a boost, especially financials and rate-sensitive sectors; this stance reinforces support to consumption and capex, particularly in housing and small businesses, helping sustain the current high-growth momentum.
What are your expectations from the upcoming Union Budget?
With the Union Budget scheduled for February, the Government is expected to stay committed to fiscal prudence.
The Fiscal deficit in the range of 4.2 – 4.3 % of GDP should provide comfort to the fixed-income bond markets.
Going forward, the debt-to-GDP ratio may become a preferred metric for assessing fiscal stability rather than the headline fiscal deficit percentage.
The other key areas of focus will be the interplay between tax buoyancy and nominal GDP Growth, especially as the Government balances revenue considerations with potential GST rationalisation and tariff adjustments.
On the expenditure side, the capital outlay is expected to remain robust with capex likely to hold ₹10 lakh crore, accompanied by continued support for infrastructure, renewables, and defence.
If the pending US tariff discussions do not conclude by the end of January, sectors currently impacted by high US Tariffs may see additional relief.
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Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of the expert, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
