NEW YORK, April 1 (Reuters) – The dollar fell against major currencies including the Swiss franc and euro for the second straight session on Wednesday amid growing signs of a possible ceasefire in the Middle East conflict, which will likely ease market volatility.
President Donald Trump said in a Reuters interview that the U.S. will end its war on Iran fairly soon and could return for “spot hits” if needed. He had earlier said in a Truth Social post that Iran’s new leader asked for a ceasefire.
Trump is scheduled to address the nation “to provide an important update on Iran” at 9 p.m. EDT on Wednesday (0100 GMT on Thursday).
The U.S. dollar has benefited from a safe-haven bid since the conflict began in late February. Expectations that a ceasefire could be near have reversed some of the markets’ most popular trades.
The dollar has pulled back from this year’s high of 160.47 per dollar against the Japanese yen, moving back through the psychologically important 160 levels that had fanned concerns about intervention by Japanese authorities. The euro hit its highest level in a week.
The euro edged up 0.27% versus the dollar to $1.1584, on track for the second consecutive session of gains.
The dollar was up 0.09% to 158.85 against the Japanese yen. Sterling strengthened 0.56% to $1.33015.
“What’s going on now with the reversal and the risk to a degree is not surprising because of how dislocated everything got,” said Eugene Epstein, head of trading and structured products at Moneycorp in New Jersey.
The dollar index, which measures the currency against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, was last down 0.07% at 99.67.
Still, attacks continued to take place on multiple fronts on Wednesday, with drones hitting fuel tanks at Kuwait’s international airport, while Qatar said an oil tanker was struck by an Iranian cruise missile in Qatari waters.
Oil prices slid, with Brent crude futures falling 2.7% to settle at $101.16.
“You might have a short-term increase in inflation but because this is a supply shock, it will eventually manifest itself in slower economic growth,” Epstein said.
“And the Fed is not going to be raising rates into the potential of a slowdown in economic growth. I think that’s been a major misconception in the market and why the dollar has rallied so much. So what’s going on now is the unwind of that.”
This week’s main U.S. economic focus will be Friday’s jobs report for March. It is expected to show that employers added 60,000 jobs during the month, according to the median estimate of economists polled by Reuters, following an unexpected loss of 92,000 jobs in February.
A sharp deterioration in the labor market would likely revive expectations for rate cuts from the Federal Reserve this year, which have been largely priced out as rising oil prices from the Iran war stoked inflation concerns.
“The range of key U.S. data this week may not be as clear a measure of the energy shock’s initial economic impact as next Friday’s March CPI data will be, but should still offer important inputs into other major U.S. macro themes,” said Goldman Sachs analysts led by Stuart Jenkins.
The dollar weakened 0.58% to 0.7947 against the Swiss franc, on track for the second straight session of losses.
The dollar weakened 0.13% to 6.878 versus the offshore Chinese yuan. The Australian dollar strengthened 0.26% versus the greenback to $0.6918.
(Reporting by Chibuike Oguh in New York; Additional reporting by Samuel Indyk and Satoshi Sugiyama; Editing by Lincoln Feast, Arun Koyyur, Aurora Ellis and Andrea Ricci )
