Crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) opened higher on Monday, extending its rally, as the heightened tensions in the Middle East due to intensifying Israel-Iran war increased concerns of disruption in oil exports.
MCX crude oil prices opened higher at ₹6,343 per barrel as against its previous close of ₹6,285. At 9:15 AM, MCX crude oil rate was up 1.05% at ₹6,351 per barrel. On Friday, MCX crude oil prices jumped 7.77%.
In the international market, Brent crude futures rose 0.82% to $74.84 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude futures gained 0.99% to $73.70. They had surged more than $4 earlier in the session. Both benchmarks settled 7% higher on Friday, having surged more than 13% during the session to their highest levels since January.
Israel and Iran have been exchanging attacks, with Israel on Sunday striking the capital Tehran. Iran, in turn, has launched several waves of drones and missiles. Early on Monday, Israel’s air force attacked sites in central Iran with surface-to-surface missiles.
“Crude oil futures extended gains for a second straight session as rising tensions between Israel and Iran stoked fears of potential supply disruptions from the Middle East. Geopolitical risks were further compounded by uncertainty around US trade policy, with President Donald Trump signaling upcoming tariff decisions, while the status of the US-China trade framework remains unclear,” said Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at Reliance Securities.
Recent developments have heightened concerns over potential disruptions to the Strait of Hormuz, a critical maritime chokepoint for global energy supplies. Approximately one-fifth of the world’s total oil consumption — equivalent to around 18 to 19 million barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil, condensates, and refined fuels — flows through this strategic corridor.
While markets are closely monitoring the potential impact on Iranian oil production, analysts believe escalating concerns over a possible blockade of the Strait of Hormuz could trigger a sharp surge in oil prices.
Iran is a member of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and currently produces approximately 3.3 million barrels per day (bpd) and exports over 2 million bpd of crude oil and refined products.
According to analysts and OPEC observers, the spare production capacity of OPEC and its allies — including Russia — is roughly equal to Iran’s output, potentially offering a buffer against any major supply disruptions.
Crude Oil Price Outlook
Rahul Kalantri, VP Commodities, Mehta Equities expect crude oil prices to remain volatile, with support seen at $71.40 – $70.50 and resistance at $73.10 – $74.00 in today’s session.
“MCX crude oil has support at ₹6,190 – ₹6,130, while resistance is at ₹6,370 – ₹6,450,” Kalantri said.
According to Jigar Trivedi, MCX crude oil June futures are expected to remain bullish, with immediate support seen near ₹6,250 per barrel.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
