US-Iran war: Crude oil prices jumped over 8% on Monday, April 13, as the US Navy moved to block vessels from accessing Iran through the Strait of Hormuz, a step that could curb Iranian oil exports after Washington and Tehran failed to reach an agreement to end the conflict.
Brent crude futures climbed $6.71, or 7.05%, to $101.91 a barrel, rebounding after a 0.75% decline on Friday. Meanwhile, US West Texas Intermediate rose $7.59, or 7.86%, to $104.16 a barrel, following a 1.33% drop in the previous session.
Meanwhile, crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also witnessed a similar upward movement today. MCX crude oil prices surged nearly 7.4% to ₹9,830 per barrel.
What’s driving crude oil prices today?
Donald Trump announced on Sunday that the Navy would begin blockading the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions after prolonged talks with Iran failed to secure a deal to end the war, putting a fragile two-week ceasefire at risk.
He also acknowledged that oil and gasoline prices could stay elevated through the November midterm elections—an unusual admission of the possible political consequences stemming from his decision to launch strikes on Iran six weeks earlier.
US Central Command said the blockade would take effect at 10 a.m. ET (1400 GMT) on Monday, covering all maritime traffic entering or leaving Iranian ports, suggested a Reuters report.
In a statement on X, CENTCOM said that the measures would be applied impartially to vessels of all nations operating in Iranian coastal areas, including ports along the Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman. However, it clarified that ships passing through the Strait of Hormuz en route to or from non-Iranian ports would not face restrictions.
Meanwhile, Iran’s Revolutionary Guards warned that any military vessels approaching the strait would be viewed as violating the two-week ceasefire with the US and would face a strong and decisive response, according to the report.
Crude oil prices outlook
Ponmudi R, CEO of Enrich Money, said that crude oil futures are currently trading near the ₹9,150 zone after a sharp and volatile decline from the week’s high near ₹11,000.
He noted that the current structure reflects consolidation near the lower end of the ascending trendline, with prices oscillating within the ₹8,800– ₹9,350 range.
“Immediate resistance is placed at the ₹9,350– ₹9,400 zone, and a sustained breakout above this range could trigger a recovery toward ₹9,800– ₹10,000 levels. On the downside, ₹8,850– ₹8,800 acts as immediate support, while a stronger base is positioned near ₹8,500, aligning with previous breakout levels where buying interest is expected to re-emerge.
Overall, any retracement toward key support zones is likely to attract fresh demand, provided the broader trendline structure continues to hold intact,” he added.
Last week, global investment bank Goldman Sachs has revised down its price outlook for the second quarter of 2026, cutting its forecasts for Brent crude and US crude to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, following a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, according to a Reuters report.
Previously, the bank had estimated average prices of $99 for Brent and $91 for West Texas Intermediate.
“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” the bank said in a note.
(With inputs from Reuters)
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
