US-Iran war: Oil prices rebounded on Thursday, April 9, after falling over 15% in the previous session, as the uncertainty surrounding a fragile two-week ceasefire in the Middle East fuelled concerns that energy shipments through the key Strait of Hormuz could continue to face disruptions.
Brent crude futures gained $1.96, or 2.07%, to $96.71 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude advanced $2.60, or 2.75%, to $97.01 a barrel.
Meanwhile, back home, crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also witnessed a similar upward movement. MCX crude oil prices surged as much as 2.62% to ₹9,090 per barrel on Thursday.
Brent crude oil prices have dropped by more than 11% this week, driven by expectations that the Strait of Hormuz will reopen after US President Donald Trump agreed to a two-week ceasefire with Iran.
What’s driving crude oil prices today?
The viability of the US-Iran war ceasefire has come under doubt as Israel continued its strikes on Lebanon on Wednesday, prompting Iran to say it would be “unreasonable” to move ahead with negotiations for a lasting peace agreement.
Meanwhile, shippers said they require greater clarity on the ceasefire’s terms before restarting transit through the Strait of Hormuz.
Iranian media were quoted as saying by Reuters that Iran has released navigational maps to help vessels avoid mines in the waterway and has identified secure routes for passage in coordination with its Revolutionary Guards.
According to the report, regional energy infrastructure remains exposed, with Iran continuing to target sites in neighbouring countries even after the ceasefire. This includes a strike on a Saudi pipeline used to circumvent the blockaded Strait of Hormuz.
Kuwait, Bahrain, and the UAE also reported being targeted by missile and drone strikes, as per the report.
Where are crude oil prices headed?
Global bank Goldman Sachs has lowered its second-quarter 2026 price outlook for Brent and US crude to $90 and $87 per barrel, respectively, following a two-week ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, the Reuters report said.
Earlier, the bank had projected average prices of $99 for Brent and $91 for West Texas Intermediate (WTI).
“Given the reduction in the risk premium at the front of the curve and already edging up oil flows through the SoH (Strait of Hormuz), we nudge down our Q2 forecast for Brent/WTI,” the bank said in a note.
Meanwhile, the bank maintained its third-quarter projections at $82 per barrel for Brent and $77 for WTI, while keeping its fourth-quarter estimates unchanged at $80 for Brent and $75 for WTI.
On the technical outlook, Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, said that WTI appears well supported near $90, with a gradual move toward $105 likely as long as uncertainty persists.
“The key question remains the durability of the ceasefire—whether it holds or breaks down into further conflict. As long as re-escalation risks remain elevated, prices are unlikely to sustain below $90, with $105–110 acting as strong resistance levels while $100 remains a key psychological mark,” Banerjee said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
