(Bloomberg) — Copper recorded the longest winning run since 2017 in a December rally powered by the prospect of more stress in the supply chain.
The metal rose 2.7% to settle at $12,558.50 a ton, the eighth day of gains, with positive sentiment showing resilience. Traders have been rushing metal to the US in anticipation of potential tariffs, tightening the market in the rest of the world.
Copper hit a record just below $13,000 a ton Monday in an end-of-year surge, before paring gains. Futures have rallied by more than 40% this year, setting up the biggest annual advance since 2009. A weaker US dollar — which makes metals less costly for buyers in other currencies — also has helped to bolster the gains, with a gauge of the greenback losing about 8% in 2025.
Supply issues have dominated metals this year, with copper mines from Indonesia and Chile to the Democratic Republic of the Congo suffering accidents. Aluminum production, meanwhile, is under threat from higher energy costs and supply limits in China, while zinc mines have also been disrupted.
For copper, it’s the threat of US import tariffs that remain the major driver. Mercuria Energy Group Ltd. warned in November there would be an extreme shortage of the metal in the rest of the world in 2026.
In the coming months, copper is likely “to be led by sentiment from investors over US copper specific tariffs, with focus on regional levels of global stocks and material entering the US, rather than underlying global fundamentals,” according to Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd.
The premium for March copper futures on Comex over comparable contracts on the London Metal Exchange has come down in recent days, but inventories in the US exchange are still rising, she said. Along with a “warming” macroeconomic outlook and supply risks, “the narrative hasn’t changed for copper with this perfect storm situation” seen throughout the fourth quarter, Scott-Gray said.
All other metals on the exchange rose, led by nickel, after top producer Indonesia flagged plans to cut supply in order to boost prices.
–With assistance from Winnie Zhu and Yvonne Yue Li.
More stories like this are available on bloomberg.com
