First gold prices, then silver, and now copper. The stellar run seen in precious metals this year seems to be extending to base metals, too. Copper prices have jumped almost 6% in September so far, and have caught investors’ attention.
The latest rally has driven the copper price around 18% higher this year, making it a remarkable year for commodities. Precious metals like gold and silver have touched lifetime high levels — surging approximately 40-50%.
Massive movements in base metal prices are quite unusual, and hence the huge surge in copper has surely made noise in the investor’s world, said Heena Naik, Research Analyst – Currency, Angel One.
What’s behind copper price rally?
Tightening supply and relentless demand from the global energy transition have fueled the bull run in copper.
“The world is upgrading itself at a fast pace, be it in the field of AI, EVs etc, where copper is used intensively. This rise in demand is facing troubles with supply, which, playing with the prices of the red metal,” Naik opined.
On the supply front, conditions have tightened significantly.
The recent mudflow incident at Freeport’s Grasberg mine in Indonesia, which accounted for ~4% of global mined copper supply, removed an estimated 250,000+ tonnes from 2025 production.
Additionally, Hudbay Minerals Inc. had temporarily shut down its Constancia processing plant in Peru on September 23, 2025, due to social unrest and illegal blockades by local protests. The company expects the disruption to be temporary and not affect 2025 production guidance.
China, meanwhile, also reduced refined copper production by 5% in early September, impacting the market by approximately 500,000 tonnes.
Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 6.6% this week, while the Yangshan copper premium, which reflects demand for copper imported into China, stabilised at $53 a ton, its one-month low, as per a Reuters report.
These pressures have driven inventories to multi-year lows, below the 5-year average, said Navneet Damani, Head of Commodity Research, Motilal Oswal Financial Services.
“For the first 7 months of the year, the market was in a 101k tons surplus compared with a 401k tons surplus in the same period a year earlier, according to ICSG,” he added.
Can copper drive focus away from gold, silver?
Against this backdrop, he expects copper prices to soar to $11,700 as structural demand growth collides with constrained supply, setting the stage for further upside.
Currently, copper prices are trading around $10,202.50 on the London Metal Exchange. Meanwhile, on the MCX, he expects prices to top the ₹1000 mark. As of Friday evening, copper prices on the MCX hovered below the ₹940 level.
Meanwhile, Naik expects MCX Copper Oct Futures to move north towards ₹956 per kg in the near-term.
“However, can copper possibly take the focus away from the precious metals like gold and silver? The answer is a big no. After making a stellar 40-50% high, gold is on its way higher and is expected to continue to rule the commodity segment for some more time,” she opined.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
