The price of copper spiked and then suddenly dropped Thursday, in a wild day for the metal.
The most active copper continuous contract climbed 11% to an all-time high of $6.58 a pound in morning trading. Prices first surged late Wednesday night, just as East Asia traders were starting their day, and then resumed their ascent around 8 a.m. ET.
But a steep pullback brought prices back down to Earth in midmorning trading. Copper was up 3.1% to $6.11 a pound at least check.
Mining stocks followed on copper’s heels—at least at first. Shares of Freeport-McMoRan rose 0.8% after starting the day up 9%. Southern Copper climbed 2.8%.
Copper has now jumped 38% since crashing at the end of July, moving higher alongside precious-metal cousins silver and gold.
“You’ve got your typical supply-demand dynamics from economics working in real-time,” Clarksons Securities analyst Roald Ross told Barron’s.
Southern Copper forecast a 5% decline in its copper production in 2026 on Wednesday. Glencore followed that up on Thursday, reporting an 11% decline in copper production in 2025, and guiding for another potential drop in 2026, though this outlook wasn’t news to investors.
On the demand side, traders across continents seem to see the metal as a growth asset with room to run at a time when alternative holdings—namely the U.S. dollar—look weak. Copper recorded a near-record daily trading volume on the Shanghai Futures Exchange overnight, Ross noted.
Copper is used in myriad electronics and infrastructure components. With China consuming roughly 60% of global supply, the metal has been a play on the country’s economic growth. The rapid artificial-intelligence data center buildout in the U.S. and elsewhere has introduced another driver for demand.
“We see fundamentals pointing to a strong case for high copper prices in the years to come,” Ross said.
But boarding the copper train isn’t without risk. To start, “speculative inflows,” rather than China’s economic growth estimates, appear to be the major catalyst behind copper’s recent rally, according to a research note earlier this month from Goldman Sachs.
China’s consumption of refined copper has actually weakened in recent months, the firm added. And an expected slowdown in demand from Chinese builders over the next several years should keep annual growth in the country’s copper consumption below 3%, according to Goldman Sachs’ estimates.
In the U.S., copper demand has surged ahead of potential tariffs on the material, analysts at Morgan Stanley said in a note last week. President Donald Trump is considering tariffs of around 15% on copper imports in 2027, rising to 30% in 2028, according to reports.
But U.S. stockpiling may not last, regardless of whether a levy is put in place. A tariff with quick implementation would likely dent imports. A delayed decision on the tariff, meanwhile, would shift attention back to the global market, where supply is less scarce, Goldman Sachs said.
The firm’s base case: “We expect a price correction in Q2 triggered by a decision from the U.S. on refined copper tariffs,” the Goldman team wrote.
“It is also worth noting that the U.S. stockpile will likely be gradually worked down once the copper tariff policy becomes clearer,” the team added.
Write to Nate Wolf at nate.wolf@barrons.com
