Coal India Ltd’s (CIL) consolidated Ebitda for the March quarter (Q4FY25), adjusted for overburden removal write-back, rose 5% year-on-year to ₹11,200 crore, aligning with expectations. The increase marks a recovery after two consecutive quarters of Ebitda decline, driven by cost control measures and the stabilization of e-auction prices. Notably, employee costs, which account for over 40% of CIL’s total expenses, fell 11% in Q4.
However, on a full-year basis, Ebitda slipped 3% to ₹43,000 crore in FY25, weighed down by lower e-auction prices despite a 5% reduction in staff costs. FY25 revenue was flat at ₹1.43 trillion, with volumes muted.
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The outlook for FY26 appears more optimistic, though, with e-auction prices showing signs of bottoming out and volumes expected to rise. E-auction prices, which dropped nearly 20% in the first nine months of FY25 amid a global coal price slump, edged up slightly in Q4 and are projected to remain stable. Additionally, a recent levy imposition at one of its subsidiaries, the first price increase in almost two years, could boost blended realizations.
Kotak Institutional Equities estimates CIL’s dispatches to grow 5.4% in FY26, up from 1.3 % in FY25, due to the delay in commissioning of thermal power projects. While 32GW of under construction coal-based power projects provide medium-term volume visibility, one challenge is the increasing share of captive coal production of other companies, up from 15% in FY24 to 19% in FY25.
In FY25, CIL commissioned its largest coal washing plant which should help increase the share of higher-quality, premium-priced coal. Washed and e-auction coal fetched premiums of 130% and 70%, respectively, over fuel supply agreement (FSA) prices, and together accounted for nearly 14% of the company’s total volumes last fiscal year.
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The company is also diversifying into clean energy.
It has entered into a joint venture with GAIL to develop a coal-to-gas synthetization project. Additionally, CIL has signed a memorandum of understanding with AM Green to supply 4,500MW of renewable power for its green ammonia facilities, slated for completion by 2030. This initiative would require an investment of ₹25,000 crore, implying ₹5,000 crore of additional annual capex over the next five years. FY25 capex was ₹13,000 crore, largely for expanding coal evacuation infrastructure.
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CIL’s shares have been largely flat in 2025 so far, and trade at an enterprise value of 4.4x FY26 estimated Ebitda, as per Bloomberg data. A pick-up in volumes and better e-auction premium hold the key to the stock’s near-term performance.
