Reliance Industries (RIL) could be on the cusp of a new growth phase, according to global brokerage CLSA, which reaffirmed its ‘Outperform’ rating on the stock with a target price of ₹1,650—indicating a potential upside of around 14 percent from current levels. The brokerage believes the company’s June quarter (Q1FY26) performance could mark a turning point after a muted FY25, driven by strength in its retail and telecom businesses.
CLSA Eyes Strong Start to FY26
CLSA noted that Reliance Industries has entered a promising phase with its Q1FY26 results expected to show marked improvements across major business verticals. “After a muted FY25, we anticipate a notable improvement across all Reliance businesses from Q1 onwards, which could trigger excitement in the stock,” CLSA said in its recent note.
According to the brokerage, the challenges in the retail segment—particularly those linked to operational consolidation and cost rationalisation—appear to be behind, setting the stage for a recovery. CLSA estimates that retail EBITDA could grow in high-teen percentages year-on-year in Q1, reflecting efficiency gains and revival in consumer activity.
Jio’s Subscriber Momentum Adds Strength
On the telecom front, Reliance Jio continues to post strong growth. In April 2025 alone, the company added 2.6 million mobile subscribers, and CLSA estimates total subscriber additions for Q1FY26 to be between 9 and 10 million. This compares favourably to the 6 million net additions in the entire previous fiscal year.
This acceleration in user growth is expected to drive better earnings performance for the segment. CLSA is also optimistic about future margin expansion, citing economies of scale and increased average revenue per user (ARPU).
Upcoming AGM and Jio IPO May Be Key Catalysts
CLSA also pointed to Reliance’s upcoming Annual General Meeting (AGM), likely scheduled between August and September, as a potential event trigger. The brokerage said any concrete announcement regarding the long-awaited Jio IPO could unlock significant value.
Additionally, updates on new business verticals—such as Reliance’s foray into FMCG, quick commerce, and its clean energy roadmap—could further reinforce the stock’s valuation. CLSA believes announcements around JioStar, the company’s satellite internet initiative, and other growth-focused ventures may act as further tailwinds.
Financial Snapshot and Stock Performance
In its Q4FY25 earnings, RIL reported a 2 percent year-on-year rise in net profit to ₹19,407 crore, while revenue grew 10 percent to ₹2.64 lakh crore. These figures were underpinned by steady performances across energy, retail, and digital services.
Despite this, the stock has remained largely range-bound over the past year, adding just 1 percent. However, it has staged a steady recovery in recent months—gaining 3 percent in June so far, after rising 1 percent in May, 10 percent in April, and 6 percent in March. The stock had fallen 5 percent in February but rose 4 percent in January.
Currently, the scrip is trading about 9 percent below its 52-week high of ₹1,608.95 touched in July 2024, and is significantly above its 52-week low of ₹1,115.55 recorded in April 2025.
Overall, CLSA’s bullish outlook on Reliance Industries is anchored in improving fundamentals across its core businesses. The expected rebound in retail performance, coupled with Jio’s robust subscriber growth, sets the stage for a strong start to FY26. Additionally, the company’s AGM, with possible announcements on the Jio IPO and new business lines, may serve as key catalysts. While macro risks remain, CLSA believes the risk-reward is favourable, positioning RIL for a potential breakout from its current consolidation phase.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
