Buy or Sell: This week, Indian equity markets witnessed notable profit booking towards the end, largely influenced by escalating geopolitical tensions between Iran and Israel. After consolidating within the 24,500–25,200 range, the Nifty ended the week with a modest decline, closing 368 points lower at 24,718.
Despite the global uncertainty, Nifty managed to hold above the key 24,500 support level, demonstrating resilience. However, market volatility surged sharply, with the India VIX rising by 8%, closing at 15.08 for the week.
In our previous outlook, we highlighted the 25,200–25,300 zone as a crucial technical resistance area. This zone corresponds to the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement of the broader market correction and remains a significant barrier for bullish continuation.
Technical Analysis
Technically, as long as the index sustains above the 24,000–24,500 range, which aligns with the 50% retracement zone, the market undertone remains strong.
A breakdown below 24,000 could signal a potential short-term top. Conversely, consistent closing above the 24,000–24,500 zone on a weekly and monthly basis would strengthen bullish prospects, opening the path toward the 25,600 level in the coming weeks.
A sustainable breakout above 25,200–25,300 remains essential to trigger a fresh leg of bullish momentum. Until then, a cautious and stock-specific approach is advised, especially given the heightened geopolitical risk.
Bank Nifty Outlook
Bank Nifty also faced selling pressure, declining by approximately 2% over the week. The index closed near its key support level at 55,500. Immediate support is now placed at 55,000–54,800, which aligns closely with the 100% retracement level of the recent move, while resistance is observed near the 57,000 mark.
Looking ahead, if Bank Nifty manages to hold above the 55,000 level, a recovery towards 57,000–57,500 is possible. However, unless a strong breakout and close above 57,000 is seen, traders should maintain a cautious stance.
Conclusion
Both Nifty and Bank Nifty have managed to close above their respective monthly support levels — Nifty: 23,600 and Bank Nifty: 54,000
However, immediate resistance at 25,200–25,300 for Nifty and 57,000 for Bank Nifty will play a pivotal role in defining the near-term trend.
Stocks to Buy
1. Bharat Electronics Ltd (BEL): Buy at ₹390-395; Target Price at ₹420; Stop Loss at ₹375.
2. CESC Ltd (CESC): Buy at ₹163-164; Target Price at ₹180; Stop Loss at ₹156.
3. Indian Bank Ltd (INDIANB): Buy at ₹620-625; Target Price at ₹650; Stop Loss at ₹610.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
