The latest escalation in the Middle East has materially raised global risk levels — but according to JM Financial, the economic fallout may not be evenly distributed. India, more than many of its global peers, stands directly exposed to the energy shock stemming from a potential disruption in the Strait of Hormuz.
In its March 1 strategy note titled “Middle East escalation: Rising oil risk for Indian markets”, JM Financial argued that crude has once again become the dominant macro variable for Indian equities. The shift from earnings-driven to oil-driven markets could leave India disproportionately vulnerable.
Oil Shock: India’s Structural Weakness
The coordinated US–Israel strikes on Iran mark what JM Financial describes as a sharp escalation — moving from limited hostilities to active military exchange. The reported elimination of Iran’s Supreme Leader and senior security officials significantly raises the probability of retaliatory measures and potential disruption to oil transit routes. The conflict has led to retaliatory strikes and security incidents across several Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, including the UAE, Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Oman. Concerns are rising that the US-Iran war could broaden further across the region.
“The coordinated US–Israel strikes on Iran mark a sharp escalation in Middle East tensions, shifting the situation from limited hostilities to active military exchange after Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US bases,” stated the report.
The critical vulnerability lies in the Strait of Hormuz. Nearly 20% of global oil flows through this chokepoint — and over 40% of India’s crude imports transit this route. That concentration creates a material exposure unmatched by many other emerging markets.
JM Financial highlighted that while media reports suggest shipping disruptions, confirmation of a sustained closure remains unclear — making the probability and duration of supply interruption the key variable.
The crude trajectory already reflects mounting anxiety. Brent has climbed to a 7-month high of approximately $80 per barrel
“Scenario analysis suggests limited retaliation could add $5–10/bbl; direct damage to Iranian oil infrastructure could add $10–12/bbl; Hormuz disruption could push prices above $90/bbl; and a broader regional war could drive crude beyond $100/bbl.”
For India, the implications are immediate and arithmetic.
“For India, the impact is direct: every $1 rise in crude increases the annual import bill by $2 billion, putting pressure on the trade balance.”
Unlike oil-exporting economies or nations with diversified energy buffers, India imports roughly 85% of its oil needs. This makes higher crude prices not just an inflationary concern but a balance-of-payments risk.
JM Financial outlined a clear transmission chain. Higher crude increases inflation risk. Elevated inflation pushes bond yields higher. Rising yields compress equity valuation multiples. In other words, the impact is not confined to energy stocks — it cascades across the entire market.
The rupee is also likely to face near-term depreciation pressure, potentially prompting intervention by the Reserve Bank of India through foreign exchange reserves.
Sectoral Impact
According to the brokerage, Oil marketing companies, paints, tyres, aviation and chemicals face margin compression from higher input costs. In contrast, upstream oil producers such as ONGC and Oil India may benefit from stronger realizations, while defence names like HAL and BEL could see sentiment support.
“Markets are likely to move from earnings-driven to oil-driven trading in the near term… Crude remains the key macro variable for Indian equities under the current escalation scenario,” it said.
This distinction explains why India may feel the tremors more acutely than peers. Countries with lower oil import dependency or stronger current account cushions can absorb energy shocks with less macro destabilization. India, by contrast, faces simultaneous pressure on inflation, currency, fiscal dynamics and corporate margins.
Overall, in this cycle, crude is not just another commodity variable — it is the macro fulcrum. And that is precisely why India may be more impacted than most global peers in the event of a sustained US–Iran war.
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