Stock market today: The domestic stock markets commenced trading on Thursday with a flat opening as investors kept a close eye on the Bihar assembly elections. The results of the Bihar polls are quite crucial due to the central government’s reliance on coalition partners.
At the beginning of trading, the Nifty 50 index opened at 25,593.35, experiencing a slight decline of -4.30 points or (-0.02 percent). In contrast, the BSE Sensex began a bit higher at 83,516.69, showing an increase of 57.54 points or 0.07 percent.
Market analysts observed that although global markets are enjoying a robust rally fueled by advancements in artificial intelligence (AI), Indian markets have not kept pace. This lag has been attributed to weak corporate earnings and the lack of significant AI-related companies in the domestic market.
Market Outlook by Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research, ICICI Securities
Nifty 50
Nifty 50 closed in the negative territory on the weekly expiry day and it has broken down its recent formed range of 26,100-25,700 on the lower side. The last weekly close was also a negative close after 4 weeks of consecutive positive close and now this week being a truncated week, if Nifty 50 is unable to close above 25,722 levels, then it will be a negative weekly close again. The India VIX has closed just above the upper end of the range which is 12.50 and a close above this level for the 2 consecutive days indicates bearish outlook in the near term.
The fresh weekly expiry is likely to be volatile again as the polling for the Bihar state elections starts from 6th November and ends on 11th November which is the weekly expiry day for the Index. The IVs in last 7 days has jumped from a single digit reading of 8.73 to 11.34 and this has led to a sharp up move in the IVP and IVR data to respectively to 32.4 & 14.49 levels respectively.
The FII participation in the Index futures has been negative since the start of the November series as the net shorts which had gone below 1 lakh contracts has now move beyond 1.30 lakh contracts again, also they have been selling in the equity cash segment as well, so overall the FIIs have turned negative on the Index and this will weigh pressure on the Index in the near term. Based on these observations, it seems that until 26,000-26,100 range is not taken off decisively now, the short-term bias will remain sideways to negative.
Market Outlook by Jay Thakkar, Vice President & Head of Derivatives and Quant Research, ICICI Securities
Nifty 50
Nifty 50 closed in the negative territory on the weekly expiry day and it has broken down its recent formed range of 26,100-25,700 on the lower side. The last weekly close was also a negative close after 4 weeks of consecutive positive close and now this week being a truncated week, if Nifty 50 is unable to close above 25,722 levels, then it will be a negative weekly close again. The India VIX has closed just above the upper end of the range which is 12.50 and a close above this level for the 2 consecutive days indicates bearish outlook in the near term.
The fresh weekly expiry is likely to be volatile again as the polling for the Bihar state elections starts from 6th November and ends on 11th November which is the weekly expiry day for the Index. The IVs in last 7 days has jumped from a single digit reading of 8.73 to 11.34 and this has led to a sharp up move in the IVP and IVR data to respectively to 32.4 & 14.49 levels respectively.
The FII participation in the Index futures has been negative since the start of the November series as the net shorts which had gone below 1 lakh contracts has now move beyond 1.30 lakh contracts again, also they have been selling in the equity cash segment as well, so overall the FIIs have turned negative on the Index and this will weigh pressure on the Index in the near term. Based on these observations, it seems that until 26,000-26,100 range is not taken off decisively now, the short-term bias will remain sideways to negative.
Stocks To Buy in the near-term – Jay Thakkar
Jay Thakkar of ICICI Securities recommends Chola Finance futures, Bharat Petroleum Corporation Ltd (BPCL) futures, and Bharat Dynamics Futures.
Buy Chola Finance fut in the range of 1,700-1,720 with a stop loss 1,665 and Target of ₹1,780-1,830
The Financial services sector has performed well in the recent bounce back and mostly all the stocks have witnessed good upside in the recent past. This stock has witnessed clear long build up and it has provided a breakout above 1700 levels which was acting as a hurdle since quite long and now it has been taken off and the 1700 strike has added significant put OI as well, so now 1700 becomes an immediate support and below that 1665 is the next important support. The stock is trading above its max pain level of 1700 as well as its 20-day VWAP level of 1686, so until these levels are held the short-term trend remains positive for this stock.
Buy BPCL fut in the range of ₹370-376 with a stop loss of ₹354 and Targets of ₹395-405
BPCL future has taken off its multiple swing resistance and with that it has provided a breakout from the cup and handle pattern with an increase in OI indicating long build up which is a positive sign in the near term. The stock is trading well above its 20-day VWAP level of 346 as well as its max pain level of 355, so in the near term the trend remains positive.
Sell Bharat Dynamics Futures in the range of ₹1,484-1,490 with a stop loss of ₹1,524 and Targets of ₹1,440 and 1,410
Bharat Dynamics share price has broken its sideways consolidation on the lower side and with that it indicates that the stock may witness further short additions going forward. The options data indicate that 1540-1600 levels have huge call base and till these levels are not taken off the overall short-term trend will be negative. The stock is trading below its VWAP level of 1527 as well as max pain level of 1540 and these levels will act as a hurdle going forward and till these levels are not taken off the overall trend remains sideways to negative.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 04/11/2025 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
