Top three stock picks by Ankush Bajaj for 22 August
Buy: CIPLA LTD — Current Price: ₹1,592.80
- Why it’s recommended: Cipla is showing strong bullish momentum. The daily RSI at 66 reflects healthy buying pressure, the MACD is positive at 16 confirming momentum, and the ADX at 18 indicates a developing trend. On the 45-minute timeframe, the stock has given a rectangle breakout, signalling a continuation of the rally after a period of consolidation — a classic technical move that often precedes strong price moves when supported by volume.
- Key metrics: Pattern: Rectangle breakout on 45-min chart (continuation pattern)
- MACD: Positive at 16
- RSI: Daily RSI at 66, indicating sustained strength
- ADX: At 18, signaling trend initiation
- Technical analysis: Sustained price action above ₹1,592 with momentum and trend confirming suggests upside potential toward ₹1,713
- Risk factors: Cipla faces risks from potential regulatory challenges in key markets, global supply chain disruptions, rising raw material costs, and pricing pressure in the highly competitive generics industry.
- Buy at: ₹1,592.80
- Target price: ₹1,713
- Stop loss: ₹1,533
Buy: HCL TECHNOLOGIES LTD — Current Price: ₹1,493.50
- Why it’s recommended: HCL Technologies is trading near a make-or-break level, with technicals pointing to a potential bullish setup. On the hourly timeframe, RSI is at 55, showing modest bullishness, MACD is positive at 3, and ADX at 11 indicates the early stages of a developing trend. The stock is currently consolidating within a triangle formation, and a sustained move above ₹1,507 would confirm a triangle breakout, paving the way for a strong pullback rally.
- Key metrics: Pattern: Triangle breakout in progress (confirmation above ₹1,507)
- MACD: Positive at 3
- RSI: Hourly RSI at 55, signaling improving momentum
- ADX: At 11, suggesting trend initiation
- Technical analysis: A breakout above ₹1,507 will validate the triangle pattern and could accelerate upside towards ₹1,564.
- Risk factors: Near-term risk comes from a failure to sustain above ₹1,507, which would keep the stock stuck in consolidation. Broader risks include global IT spending weakness, currency fluctuations, and margin pressure from rising employee costs.
- Buy at: ₹1,493.50
- Target price: ₹1,564
- Stop loss: ₹1,457
Buy: HDFC BANK LTD — Current Price: ₹1,991.20
- Why it’s recommended: HDFC Bank is trading in a narrow consolidation zone and is poised for a potential breakout. On the daily chart, the RSI is at 50, reflecting a neutral but improving setup, while the MACD is above zero, confirming underlying bullish bias. The ADX at 11 suggests the trend is in its early stage of development. Importantly, a sustained move above ₹2,005 will confirm a double bottom breakout, unlocking higher levels in the near term.
- Key metrics: Pattern: Double bottom breakout (trigger above ₹2,005)
- MACD: Positive, above zero line
- RSI: Daily RSI at 50, improving towards bullish territory
- ADX: At 11, showing early trend formation
- Technical analysis: A successful breakout above ₹2,005 could push the stock towards ₹2,015 initially, with potential extension to ₹2,040 in the short term.
- Risk factors: Immediate risk lies in failure to cross the ₹2,005 breakout level, which may prolong the consolidation. Broader risks include margin pressure from high funding costs, regulatory overhang on the banking sector, and sensitivity to interest rate outlook.
- Buy at: ₹1,991.20
- Target price: ₹2,040
- Stop loss: ₹1,966
Market Wrap
On Thursday, 21 August 2025, the Nifty 50 added 33.20 points, or 0.13%, to close at 25,083.75, while the BSE Sensex advanced 142.87 points, or 0.17%, ending the day at 82,000.71. The Bank Nifty, however, showed relative underperformance, inching up by just 56.95 points, or 0.10%, to settle at 55,755.45, reflecting profit-taking in financial names.
Sector-wise, market action remained mixed. Weakness was visible in FMCG (−0.64%), Energy (−0.48%), and PSE (−0.47%), which capped broader gains. In contrast, strength came from Pharma (+0.95%), Healthcare (+0.93%), and Realty (+0.38%), showcasing investors’ tilt towards cyclicals and consumption-oriented counters.
In the stock-specific space, Mankind Industries emerged as the standout performer, surging 3.73%. Cipla followed with a strong 3.02% gain, while TVS Motor climbed 1.58%, supported by favorable momentum in their respective sectors. On the other hand, some heavyweights exerted pressure on the upside—Dabur slipped 3.61%, Bosch Limited declined 1.15%, and Indigo fell 0.92%.
Globally, optimism was reinforced as softer-than-expected U.S. inflation data rekindled expectations of a September rate cut by the Federal Reserve. On the domestic front, retail inflation cooling to an eight-year low of 1.55% further bolstered confidence. Together, these macro positives underpinned buying interest, helping the Nifty maintain stability above the 24,600 mark despite selective sectoral divergences.
Nifty Technical Analysis – Daily & Hourly
The Nifty 50 ended the session on 21st August 2025 consolidating just above the 25,000 mark, reflecting indecision after the recent upmove. While the index managed to hold its ground, the technical and derivatives data suggest a mixed setup heading into the next session.
From a technical perspective, the index continues to trade above its short-term moving averages, with the 20-DMA at 24,740 and 40-DEMA at 24,861 providing a cushion on the downside. On the daily timeframe, the RSI stands at 57, indicating steady momentum, while the MACD has narrowed to –22, showing that bearish pressure is gradually fading but not yet fully reversed. On the hourly chart, the 20-HMA at 25,041 is positioned above the 40-HEMA at 24,923, confirming a bullish crossover that continues to support intraday strength. The hourly RSI at 62 remains in the positive territory, while the MACD is strongly positive at +78, reinforcing near-term bullish momentum.
On the derivatives front, the positioning presents a slightly more nuanced picture. The overall Put OI stands higher at 16.70 crore versus Call OI of 15.82 crore, giving the broader trend a bullish skew. However, the day’s change data tilts bearish—total Put OI declined by 1.52 crore while Call OI rose by 2.30 crore, resulting in a negative OI differential of 3.82 crore. This indicates some profit-taking by put writers and fresh call additions at higher strikes. The maximum Call OI and the highest change are concentrated at the 25,100 strike, marking this level as the immediate resistance. On the Put side, the maximum OI is parked at 25,050, with fresh activity also seen at 25,100, indicating that both bulls and bears are converging around this zone.
In summary, while the close above 25,000 keeps the structure constructive, the heavy OI build-up at 25,100 could act as a short-term ceiling unless decisively crossed. Sustaining above 25,100 remains the key trigger for a potential short-covering rally towards 25,300–25,500. On the downside, the 24,740–24,860 zone—aligned with the 20-DMA and 40-DEMA—remains the critical support area. A break below this could weaken momentum.
With daily indicators turning constructive, hourly charts holding bullish momentum, and OI showing signs of a tussle at 25,100, the market is likely to witness a range-bound yet eventful session, where a decisive breakout could dictate the next leg of the rally.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
