Top three stock picks by Ankush Bajaj for 19 August:
Ashok Leyland Ltd (current price: ₹131.75)
Why it’s recommended: Ashok Leyland is showing strong bullish momentum, with the daily RSI at 67, MACD in positive territory, and ADX at 27, all indicating a robust trend. The stock has recently broken above resistance near ₹127, suggesting momentum continuation.
Key metrics: Pattern: Breakout above recent resistance at ₹127
MACD: Positive, confirming buy momentum
RSI: 67, in bullish zone
ADX: 27, signalling a strong trend
Technical analysis: The breakout structure, bolstered by strong momentum, points to further upside toward ₹139.
Risk factors: Demand fluctuations in the commercial vehicle cycle, competition from peers, and higher debt levels that could weigh on free cash flow.
Buy at: ₹131.75
Target price: ₹139
Stop loss: ₹128
Maruti Suzuki Ltd (current price: ₹14,068)
Why it’s recommended: Maruti Suzuki is in bullish territory with a daily RSI of 81, MACD at 180, and ADX averaging 12, highlighting momentum accumulation. The stock recently closed at a new lifetime high, indicating strong upward continuation.
Key metrics: Pattern: New lifetime high breakout
MACD: Strongly positive at 180
RSI: 81, showing overbought but sustained strength
ADX: 12, signalling early trend formation
Technical analysis: The crossover alongside market momentum supports potential upside to ₹14,575.
Risk factors: Exposure to supply chain disruptions (especially EV components), rising competition in the SUV space, and potential margin pressure due to raw material costs.
Buy at: ₹14,068
Target price: ₹14,575
Stop loss: ₹13,815
Eicher Motors Ltd (current price: ₹5,915)
Why it’s recommended: Eicher Motors exhibits strong bullish momentum characterized by a daily RSI of 73, MACD at 62, and ADX at 16, signalling an emerging trend. The stock has also recently reached a new lifetime high, reinforcing the bullish setup.
Key metrics: Pattern: New lifetime high breakout
MACD: Positive at 62
RSI: 73, indicating strong momentum
ADX: 16, early-stage trend initiation
Technical analysis: Sustained momentum and breakout signal suggest further upside potential.
Risk factors: High valuations, rising input costs, and execution risks in scaling up international operations.
Buy at: ₹5,915
Target price: ₹6,200
Stop loss: ₹5,780
Stock market wrap
Sectoral trends reflected strong rotational momentum. While pockets like PSE (−0.38%), Healthcare (−0.08%), and Pharma (−0.05%) witnessed mild profit booking, high-beta segments stole the show. The Auto index surged 4.18%, Realty jumped 2.17%, and the Consumption index climbed 2.11%, signalling robust appetite for cyclical and consumption-driven plays.
Stock-specific action was equally vibrant. Maruti led from the front with a stellar 8.75% rally, followed by Hero MotoCorp, which jumped 5.86%, and Bajaj Finance, up 5.08%—all riding strong sectoral tailwinds. On the flip side, select heavyweight names capped further upside, with ITC slipping 1.25%, L&T easing 1.14%, and Eternal falling 1.10%.
Globally, the sentiment turned favourable as softer-than-expected US inflation data revived hopes of a September Fed rate cut, while at home, retail inflation cooled to an eight-year low of 1.55%. These twin positives strengthened investor conviction, enabling the Nifty to sustain momentum above the 24,600 mark despite divergences across sectors.
Nifty technical analysis: Daily and hourly
The Nifty 50 ended the previous session on a firm note, showing signs of resilience after recent volatility. On the daily timeframe, the broader trend continues to be guided by the moving average setup, where the 20-DMA at 24,753 still trades below the 40-DEMA at 24,832, keeping the medium-term structure cautious. However, momentum indicators are turning more constructive. The daily RSI has improved to 52, moving above the neutral 50 mark, while the MACD, though still negative at -115, shows further moderation in bearish momentum, suggesting that downside pressure is fading.
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On the hourly chart, the tone has clearly improved. The Nifty has given a positive crossover of the 20-HMA (24,729) above the 40-HEMA (24,683), which is an encouraging short-term signal. Price action has also confirmed a breakout above the hourly trendline, adding weight to the ongoing recovery attempt. The hourly RSI at 62 reflects healthy bullish momentum, while the hourly MACD at +94 is firmly positive, underscoring strong intraday buying interest. This structure indicates that as long as the index holds above immediate supports, the market could attempt a decisive move higher.
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The derivatives data, however, continues to lean slightly bearish. Total Call OI at 123.1 million remains higher than Put OI at 108.3 million, leading to a negative PE-CE OI difference of 14.8 million contracts. Call writers added 64.2 million contracts, while Put writers added 56.5 million contracts, creating a negative OI change difference of 7,709,000, reinforcing near-term supply pressure.
The heaviest Call OI stands at the 25,000 strike, where the largest addition has also been seen, cementing it as the critical resistance level. On the Put side, maximum OI remains at 24,000, while the highest addition has shifted to the 24,800 strike, signalling that traders are gradually building support closer to current levels.
Globally, cues remain mixed with US equities consolidating after recent highs, crude oil steady around $65-66 per barrel, and the rupee stable near 87.6, providing a supportive but neutral macro backdrop.
Key Takeaways
Supports: 24,720-24,680 (HMA/HEMA band) followed by 24,600.
Resistance: 25,000 (major supply zone); above this, momentum could accelerate.
Momentum bias: Daily indicators improving, hourly momentum strong.
OI signals: Call writers dominant at 25,000, keeping upside capped unless breakout sustains.
Market outlook
The index is attempting to shift from consolidation to recovery. As long as the Nifty sustains above 24,720-24,680, the setup favours a test of 25,000. A sustained close above 25,000 could trigger a breakout rally towards 25,550, where the next major hurdle lies. Conversely, a close back below 24,680 would weaken the short-term momentum and shift focus back towards 24,600.
Ankush Bajaj is a Sebi-registered research analyst. His registration number is INH000010441.
Investments in securities are subject to market risks. Read all the related documents carefully before investing.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
