The broader sentiment was also dampened by uncertainty over the U.S.-India trade developments. The volatility index, India VIX, closed at a 52-week low, signaling easing investor fear.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India for 11 July:
Buy:Aditya Birla Sun Life AMC Ltd(current price: ₹ 850.30)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong AUM and revenue momentum, robust SIP growth, diversified product line, industry tailwind.
- Key metrics: P/E: 26.48, 52-week high: ₹ 911.85, volume: ₹ 92.52 crore
- Technical analysis: Trending above all its key moving averages, strong momentum
- Risk factors: Market volatility and equity flow sensitivity, intense competition, and regulatory uncertainty.
- Buy at: ₹ 850
- Target price: ₹ 1,040 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹ 778
Buy: One 97 Communications (current price: ₹940.55)
- Why it’s recommended: Financial services expansion, robust merchant ecosystem, cost optimization, MTU & GMV recovery.
- Key metrics: P/E: –, 52-week high: ₹ 1,062.95, volume: ₹ 608crore
- Technical analysis: Trending above all its key moving averages, strong relative strength rating.
- Risk factors: Revenue decline, profitability lag, rising credit risk in lending business, and ongoing competition.
- Buy at: ₹ 940
- Target price: ₹ 1,156 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹ 858
Market recap
On Thursday, Nifty50 commenced the session on a neutral note but gradually trended lower throughout the day, ultimately forming a bearish candlestick on the daily chart. Selling pressure intensified in the latter half, driven by declines in Nifty IT, PSU Banks, FMCG, and Pharmaceutical sectors. Both Midcap and Smallcap indices mirrored this weakness, closing near their session lows. Conversely, the Realty and Metal sectors exhibited relative resilience amid mixed broader market activity. Market breadth remained balanced, reflected in an advance-decline ratio of 1:1.
Technically, despite Thursday’s negative momentum, the index remains well supported above its key moving averages, indicating an underlying firm base. While the recent price action suggests a phase of short-term consolidation. The daily relative strength index (RSI) is on a downward trajectory, currently near 55–56, signaling a loss of upward momentum. Similarly, the MACD has turned lower and shows a negative crossover, though it continues to trade above the zero line, reflecting cautious but sustained bullish control.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, Nifty reclaimed its recent high of 25,116. Hence, the market status has been upgraded to a Confirmed Uptrend as of June 11, 2024.
On Thursday, Nifty50 continued its downward move, ending near the day’s low with a negative bias. Despite near-term weakness, the broader market outlook remains positive. Short-term volatility is likely due to sectoral shifts and global factors. Key support levels at 25,200 and 25,000 may help limit downside pressure. On the higher side, resistance is seen around 25,600–25,700. A decisive move above this range could revive bullish momentum and potentially trigger the next leg of the rally.
How did Nifty Bank perform?
The index opened positively on Thursday but was unable to sustain gains, closing 0.45% lower after trading predominantly in the negative territory and forming a bearish candlestick on the daily chart. The decline was primarily led by weakness in heavyweight stocks such as HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, Kotak Bank, and SBI. The index opened at 57,339.75, fluctuated within a narrow range of 57,363.70 to 56,886.60, and settled at 56,956. Similarly, FINNIFTY followed a downward trajectory, ending the session with a loss of approximately 0.27%.
The index remains positioned above all its key moving averages but exhibited selling pressure above 57,000 and closed below it on Thursday. The daily relative strength index (RSI) has turned downward and currently hovers near 56, signaling a loss of momentum. Additionally, the MACD has crossed bearish and turned negative, suggesting the need for caution in the near term.
As per O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, Bank Nifty remains in a “Confirmed Uptrend”, a trend it has sustained over the past few weeks.
Bank Nifty closed below 57,000 on Thursday, exhibiting a negative bias. Sustained trading below this level could trigger increased selling pressure, potentially pushing the index toward 56,200–56,000 in the coming days. Conversely, a decisive break and hold above 57,000 may result in range-bound trading between 57,000 and 57,600. Furthermore, a sustained move beyond 57,600 could pave the way for an upward rally toward 58,500–59,000.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. It offers tools and resources to help investors make informed decisions based on the CAN SLIM methodology, developed by legendary investor William J. O’Neil. You can access a 10-day free trial by registering on its website.
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
