On Thursday, Nifty50 closed flat as investor sentiment was rattled by fresh geopolitical tensions following US President Donald Trump’s announcement of an additional 25% tariff on Indian exports. The index experienced a volatile session, swinging between 24,350 and 24,650. While the index briefly dipped below the 24,400 level, it found support and staged a strong recovery in the latter half of the session, ultimately closing near 24,600.
Two stock recommendations by MarketSmith India:
Buy: KRN Heat Exchanger and Refrigeration Limited(current price: ₹883.7)
- Why it’s recommended: Strong earnings and revenue growth, aggressive capacity expansion and scalability, strong clientele and operational efficiency, premium listing performance and branding
- Key metrics: P/E: 98.19, 52-week high: ₹ 1,012.00, volume: ₹89.93 crore
- Technical analysis: Reclaimed its 21-DMA on above average volume
- Risk factors: Raw material and supplier risk, geographical and operational concentration, industry competition, and policy dependency
- Buy: ₹ 883.70
- Target price: ₹ 1,020 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹ 805
Buy: JSW Steel Limited (current price: ₹1,064)
- Why It-etf-share-price-nse-bse-e00149″ data-vars-anchor-text=”It” data-vars-link-type=”Auto” data-vars-page-type=”story”>It’s recommended: Robust capacity expansion and infrastructure demand, strategic investment in advanced products
- Key metrics: P/E: 46.53; 52-week high: ₹ 1,075; volume: ₹ 194 crore
- Technical analysis: Downward-sloping trendline breakout
- Risk factors: Cyclical demand and price pressures, strategic and execution risks
- Buy at: ₹1,050–1,070
- Target price: ₹1,200 in two to three months
- Stop loss: ₹ 999
Nifty 50 recap
The benchmark indices closed flat on Thursday, as investor sentiment weakened amid fresh US tariff measures on Indian exports and continued foreign fund outflows. This was in contrast to the broadly positive global cues.
The Indian markets opened lower and remained under pressure for most of the day, with Nifty slipping below 24,350 intraday. However, a sharp rebound in the final hour of trade helped the index recover losses and close near the day’s high. It ended 21.95 points higher, or 0.09%, at 24,596.15.
Among broader market indices, BSE Midcap gained 0.3%, while the Smallcap index closed flat. Sectorally, most indices recovered intraday losses, with IT, Media, and Pharma rising between 0.5–1%.The advance-decline ratio was skewed in favor of decliners, reflecting widespread profit booking and risk-off sentiment across the broader market.
On the technical front, Nifty 50 briefly breached its 100-day moving average (DMA) during intraday trade but managed to close above it, supported by late buying interest. The relative strength index (RSI) continues to move sideways and currently stands at 39, reflecting weak momentum. Meanwhile, the MACD remains in a negative crossover, trading below both its signal line and the zero axis. This technical setup indicates a cautious near-term outlook, with momentum still lacking. A meaningful reversal appears unlikely unless the index breaks above key resistance levels with strong and sustained buying support.
According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, market status has been downgraded to an “Uptrend Under Pressure” as Nifty breached its “50-DMA” and the “distribution day count” rose to six.
The index traded with notable volatility, moving within a broad range of 24,340–24,640, influenced by weekly derivative expiry and the announcement of a 50% tariff by the U.S. Despite the choppiness, the index managed to hold above its 100-DMA. However, it struggled to sustain momentum and closed below the 100-day exponential moving average (EMA). Looking ahead, we may see a pullback rally toward 24,700, with a potential extension to 24,900, provided short-term strength resumes. On the downside, immediate support is in 24,450–24,400. A decisive break below this range could open the door for a deeper correction, potentially dragging the index down to 24,200.
How did Nifty Bank perform
On Thursday, Bank Nifty opened on a weaker note and remained under pressure for most of the trading session, trading in negative territory. However, during the final hour, the index witnessed strong buying interest at lower levels, which supported a recovery and enabled a positive close. Notably, the index found support near its 100-day EMA, reinforcing its technical relevance. This rebound from a key support zone indicates short-term resilience. The session concluded with the formation of a bullish candlestick pattern on the daily chart. This price action suggests potential for further upside if follow-through buying emerges in the coming sessions.
The momentum indicator, RSI, continues to move sideways and is currently positioned at 38, reflecting weakening strength in the index. The MACD has also formed a negative crossover, reinforcing the prevailing short-term bearish sentiment. According to O’Neil’s methodology of market direction, Bank Nifty is in an “Uptrend Under Pressure,” underscoring a cautious and fragile market environment.
Bank Nifty ended the session on a positive note, successfully holding above its 100-EMA, signaling resilience at key support levels. A reversal from the current zone could potentially drive the index toward 56,400–56,450, aligning with its 50-DMA. Sustained buying above this zone may strengthen the bullish outlook. However, a breach below the crucial support at 55,200 may trigger a downside move, with the index likely to retest its 100-day EMA—approximately 646 points below current levels—indicating elevated near-term downside risk.
MarketSmith India is a stock research platform and advisory service focused on the Indian stock market. Trade name: William O’Neil India Pvt. Ltd. (Sebi Registered Research Analyst Registration No.: INH000015543).
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Disclaimer: The views and recommendations given in this article are those of individual analysts. These do not represent the views of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
