As India celebrates Akshaya Tritiya on 19 April 2026, retail investors are once again turning to bullion as a preferred avenue for wealth creation.
Widely regarded as one of the most auspicious occasions in the Hindu calendar, the festival symbolizes prosperity and good fortune, with gold purchases traditionally believed to generate enduring wealth.
Gold prices have generated 63% returns in one year since last Akshaya Tritiya, marking one of its strongest rallies in recent cycles. This surge in gold rates has been driven by geopolitical uncertainties, sustained central bank buying, and resilient investment demand, underscoring the yellow metal’s role as a core long-term portfolio asset.
Gold prices on Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) have consistently performed around Akshaya Tritiya where returns have ranged from 2.5% in 2021 to a sharp 63.4% in 2026 (April 17), with strong gains of over 47% in 2020, 21.5% in 2024, and 30.3% in 2025, according to data compiled by Kedia Advisory.
Despite intermittent volatility, experts believes that the gold has largely rewarded investors during this period, reinforcing its reputation as a dependable long-term investment aligned with traditional buying trends.
Axis Securities in its report stated that the gold has shown a distinct trend of increasing returns around Akshaya Tritiya, emphasizing its strong potential for compounding.
From a longer viewpoint spanning 2016 to 2026, Axis Securities in its report stated that the gold has achieved an 18% CAGR during this festive period. This steady upward movement highlights gold’s capacity to generate wealth over time, with the recent pattern of double-digit returns pointing to ongoing investor interest and enhancing its attractiveness as a long-term investment option, according to the brokerage.
MCX gold rate has surged from around ₹94,611 per 10 grams on April 30, 2025, to ₹1,54,609 per 10 grams as of April 18, 2026 — an increase of ₹59,998. This translates into a strong gain of about 63.4% over the period.
Can the yellow metal reach ₹2,00,000 by next Akshaya Tritiya?
NS Ramaswamy, Head CRM & Commodities of Ventura Securities, believes there is a strong possibility of MCX gold rate rising to around ₹2 lakh per 10 grams by Akshaya Tritiya next year. He expects MCX gold prices to increase 15% by the end of December 2026 to approximately ₹1,75,000.
Ramaswamy said that during Akshaya Tritiya, consumer behavior typically shifts towards a “value over volume” strategy rather than a pure FOMO (Fear of Missing Out) frenzy, particularly when gold prices are at record highs. Instead of heavy jewelry, shoppers frequently pivot to gold coins, bars, or lightweight jewelry (18-carat) to maintain the tradition of buying on the auspicious day within their budget.
“The Indian gold market has entered a period of structural recalibration as domestic prices breached the critical ₹1.5 lakh per 10 grams milestone in early 2026. This level represents far more than a psychological barrier; it is a fundamental shift in the valuation benchmark for wealth managers and a pivot point for retail purchasing power, which has been compressed by a 69% increase in domestic ticket size compared to the previous festive cycle,” added Ramaswamy.
According to NS Ramaswamy, the gold market is currently witnessing a clear “value vs volume” paradox, where record-high revenues are being maintained despite a sharp decline in physical demand. In 2025, gold prices surged 46% year-on-year—the highest annual increase in nearly 47 years—while tonnage volumes in Q3 fell by 31%. Despite this drop in volumes, revenue still grew 23% in rupee terms, driven by elevated prices. He also highlighted that gold touched a peak of around ₹1.8 lakh per 10 grams in January 2026, underscoring the strength of the ongoing price rally.
Mohit Gulati, CIO and managing partner of ITI Growth Opportunities Fund, said – “After a 63% rally, people ask me if I’m worried about gold. I’m not — I’m more worried about the dollar. As long as fiscal deficits keep widening and trade policy stays unpredictable, gold isn’t a trade, it’s a position. ₹2,00,000 by next Akshaya Tritiya? I wouldn’t rule it out. The metal has a way of surprising people who underestimate it.”
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
