The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday, tracking weak cues from global markets, as the escalation in the US-Iran war and uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil prices sharply higher and stoked inflation fears.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,034 level, a discount of nearly 207 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply higher, led by a broad-based rally across sectors, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 24,200 level.
The Sensex surged 827.57 points, or 1.08%, to close at 77,569.39, while the Nifty 50 settled 244.10 points, or 1.02%, higher at 24,206.90.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex ended the week on a firm note, extending its recovery and maintaining a constructive technical structure as it closed comfortably above the 77,500 mark.
“We believe that the short-term market texture is volatile and non-directional; hence, level-based trading would be the ideal strategy for traders. On the downside, the 20-day SMA at 77,000 would act as a key support zone. As long as Sensex sustains above these levels, an uptrend is likely to continue. On the higher side, the index could move up to 78,000 – 78,300. Further upside may also continue, potentially lifting Sensex to 78,700,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
On the flip side, he believes if Sensex falls below 77,000, it could retest the levels of 76,100 or the 50-day SMA, and below 76,100, the chances of hitting 75,600-75,500 would increase.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 ended last week 0.26% lower and formed a Doji-like candlestick pattern on the weekly chart, indicating indecision as the index continues to trade within a well-defined sideways range.
“A reasonable bull candle was formed on the daily chart with gap up opening and the opening upside gap remained unfilled. This is a positive indication and signals a comeback of bulls after one session of steep fall in the market on July 8,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the underlying short-term trend of Nifty 50 continues to be positive, and the formation of the inside day/ inverted hammer type candle pattern of Thursday has resulted in a subsequent bounce back in the market on Friday.
“Nifty 50 is now on the way towards the crucial hurdle of around 23,500 – 23,600 levels by next week. Immediate support is placed at 24,000 levels,” said Shetti.
Santosh Meena, Head of Research at Swastika Investmart noted that the Nifty 50 continues to trade in a sideways consolidation phase, and the 24,000 and 23,800 levels remain immediate and crucial support zones.
“On the upside, 24,350 is the first hurdle, while the 24,500 – 24,600 zone represents a major resistance area. A decisive breakout above 24,600 could pave the way for a fresh rally towards the psychological milestone of 25,000,” said Meena.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty ended 793.45 points, or 1.39%, higher at 58,045.90 on Friday. Last week, Bank Nifty rose 0.19% and formed a Dragonfly Doji pattern on the weekly chart, reflecting strong buying interest at lower levels and that bulls are gradually regaining control.
“From a technical perspective, Bank Nifty continues to trade comfortably above its key moving averages, which maintain a positive upward slope. Moreover, the daily RSI is on the verge of crossing the 60 level, indicating improving bullish momentum,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
However, he believes the immediate hurdle for the Bank Nifty index is placed in the 58,500 – 58,600 zone, and a sustained breakout above 58,600 could pave the way for a rally towards 59,200.
“On the downside, the 57,400 – 57,300 zone, coinciding with the 20-day EMA, is expected to offer strong support and keep the broader bullish structure intact,” said Shah.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd. highlighted that the Bank Nifty index found strong support near its 21 week EMA and staged a sharp rebound from the 56,500 – 56,600 zone, indicating sustained buying interest at lower levels.
“The index continues to trade above its key moving averages, reinforcing the positive medium term trend. Technically, the broader structure remains constructive, with immediate resistance placed near 58,600. A decisive breakout above this level is likely to trigger fresh buying momentum and open the door for an advance towards 59,200,” said Singh.
According to him, as long as Bank Nifty sustains above 56,500 – 56,600, the overall outlook remains positive, and a buy on dips strategy continues to be preferred.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
