The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open flat on Monday, tracking mixed global market cues.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a muted start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,340 level, a discount of nearly 13 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended higher, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 24,200 level.
The Sensex rose 261.79 points, or 0.34%, to close at 77,763.91, while the Nifty 50 settled 95.15 points, or 0.39%, higher at 24,270.85.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex rose 0.87% last week, forming a bullish candle on weekly charts, and is also holding a higher bottom formation, which is largely positive.
“We are of the view that the short-term market texture is positive, but for traders, the ideal strategy would be to buy on dips and sell on rallies. On the downside, 77,300 and 76,700 would act as key support zones for Sensex, while 78,400 – 79,000 would be key resistance areas for the bulls,” said Amol Athawale, VP Technical Research, Kotak Securities.
However, he believes the market sentiment could change below 76,700, and a fall below that level could retest levels of 76,100 – 75,900.
Mayank Jain, Market Analyst, Share.Market by PhonePe said that the technical support for Sensex lies at 75,300 – 76,500 levels, while resistance is placed at 78,300 – 78,500 zone.
“Chart data indicates that a major structural support cluster is established across this broad macro demand zone. Maintaining this floor is crucial for preserving the market’s medium-term bullish structure. Immediate supply is active near the recent psychological high of 78,150. However, a decisive breakout past that local hurdle shifts the ultimate technical objective to the 78,300 – 78,500 supply cluster,” said Jain.
Nifty Options Data
Nifty options data also supports a positive outlook, with the highest Put open interest concentrated at 24,000, indicating strong support, while the 24,300 – 24,500 zone is likely to act as the immediate resistance area due to significant Call open interest.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 formed a reasonable red candle on the daily chart above the resistance of 24,200. For the week, the index gained 0.89% and formed a bullish candle on the weekly chart with shadows on both sides, reflecting continued indecisiveness among market participants.
“Technically this market action signals lack of strength in the upside breakout of crucial resistance. Formation of a long bull candle on the weekly chart last week and a formation of long lower shadows in the last three weekly candles indicates that the consolidation movement in the market is likely to end soon and Nifty 50 could regain momentum on the upside,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the next upside to be watched is around 24,600 by this week and immediate support is placed at 24,050.
Nilesh Jain, VP- Head of Technical and Derivative research at Centrum Finverse Ltd. noted that the Nifty 50 confirmed a breakout from a symmetrical triangle pattern on the daily chart by decisively moving above the 24,100 mark, which also coincides with its 100-DMA. On the weekly timeframe, the index closed above the crucial 24,200 resistance level, reinforcing the positive bias and confirming a bullish breakout.
“The overall technical structure remains constructive, and as long as the Nifty 50 index sustains above the breakout zone, we expect a gradual move towards the 24,550 level in the near term. Momentum indicators continue to support the bullish outlook, with the MACD maintaining a buy crossover above the zero line and the RSI holding comfortably above the 60 mark, indicating sustained buying strength,” said Jain.
Dr. Ravi Singh, Chief Research Officer from Master Capital Services Ltd. said that the Nifty 50 index continues to strengthen on the daily chart after the 21-day EMA crossed above the 55-day EMA, confirming a bullish crossover and indicating improving momentum.
“The Nifty 50 index is sustaining above the key resistance zone of 23,800 – 24,000, reinforcing the positive trend. As long as this support zone remains intact, a buy-on-dips strategy is likely to remain favourable. On the upside, the index has the potential to advance towards 24,450 and 24,600 in the near term,” said Singh.
While the India VIX has cooled to around 12, suggesting limited volatility and relatively smaller price swings, the overall market structure and momentum continue to favour the bulls, he added.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 93.15 points, or 0.16%, lower at 57,938.50 on Friday, forming a small bearish candle. For the week, the index ended with a minor loss of 0.41%, and formed a small bearish candle on the weekly timeframe with a long lower shadow, highlighting indecisiveness among market participants.
“Bank Nifty index continues to trade comfortably above its short and long-term moving averages. These moving averages remain in an upward trajectory, indicating that the broader trend continues to be positive. The daily RSI is positioned in bullish territory; however, it has been oscillating in the 60-63 range over the last four trading sessions, suggesting a lack of fresh momentum at higher levels,” said Sudeep Shah – Head, Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
According to him, the 58,600 – 58,700 zone is likely to act as a key resistance area for the Bank Nifty index, and a decisive and sustained breakout above 58,700 could pave the way for a sharp upward move towards 59,500, followed by the 60,300 level in the short term.
“On the downside, the 20-day EMA zone of 57,100 – 57,000 is expected to act as a strong support base. As long as the Bank Nifty index sustains above this crucial support zone, the overall short-term trend is likely to remain constructive with a positive bias,” said Shah.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the Bank Nifty index continues to hold above its entire SMA ribbon, keeping the broader uptrend intact despite the near-term consolidation.
“The RSI is placed at 62, sustaining positive momentum. The MACD remains neutral. On the upside, 58,500 remains the key level to watch, and a close above this could bring 59,000 into focus. On the downside, 57,400 offers the first support, with 57,200 serving as a stronger base below,” said Mehra.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
