The National Stock Exchange (NSE) has filed its Draft Red Herring Prospectus (DRHP) with the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) for its much-awaited initial public offering (IPO). Upon listing, NSE shares will trade on its listed rival, the Bombay Stock Exchange (BSE).
The NSE IPO is expected to be among the largest IPOs in Indian stock market history, with estimates pegging the issue size at around ₹30,000 crore. Reports suggest the NSE IPO could be priced in the range of ₹1,800 – ₹2,040 per share.
At the upper end of the price band, NSE could command a valuation of more than ₹5 lakh crore. In comparison, BSE’s market capitalisation stood at over ₹1.63 lakh crore as of June 22.
Has NSE IPO already been priced into BSE shares?
BSE share price has rallied sharply amid expectations surrounding the NSE listing. The stock has gained more than 52% year-to-date (YTD) and delivered multibagger returns of nearly 1,900% over the past three years.
Analysts believe a significant portion of the optimism related to the NSE IPO has already been reflected in BSE share price.
According to Saurabh Jain, Head of Fundamental Research at SMC Global Securities, BSE shares could continue to witness positive sentiment ahead of the NSE IPO as investor attention shifts toward exchange businesses.
“However, while the NSE IPO may act as a short-term catalyst, BSE’s long-term performance will continue to depend on its earnings growth, market share gains, and underlying business fundamentals,” Jain said.
Sunny Agrawal, Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, noted that BSE’s strong stock performance has been largely driven by its continued market share gains in the futures and options (F&O) segment, where its premium turnover market share stood at 30.6% as of May 2026.
Despite the operational momentum, Agrawal believes current valuations leave limited room for fresh upside.
“At present, BSE is trading at 46x and 39x its FY27 and FY28 estimated earnings, respectively, while earnings per share (EPS) is expected to grow at a CAGR of around 28% between FY26 and FY28. Any further re-rating would depend on sustained turnover growth and continued market share gains against NSE,” he said.
Given the current valuation, SBI Securities recommends investors continue holding existing positions in BSE shares, but sees an unfavourable risk-reward profile for fresh investments at current levels.
Meanwhile, NSE continues to maintain a significant lead over BSE in terms of scale and profitability.
For FY26, NSE reported revenue from operations of ₹16,601 crore, more than three times BSE’ revenue of ₹4,834 crore. The exchange posted a profit after tax (PAT) of ₹10,302 crore, compared with BSE’s net profit of ₹2,487 crore.
NSE also reported slightly higher operating profitability, with an EBITDA margin of 66.9% versus BSE’s 64%.
While the NSE IPO could support near-term sentiment for BSE shares, analysts believe much of the excitement surrounding the listing is already reflected in BSE’s valuation. Existing investors may continue to hold the stock, but fresh investors may need to weigh the elevated valuations against future growth prospects and market share gains before taking a position.
Technical View
BSE share price is consolidating within a narrow ₹3,960 – ₹4,220 range after a sharp bout of profit booking, suggesting the stock is undergoing a healthy pause rather than a trend reversal, noted Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree Investments.
“The sideways movement reflects a base-building process, allowing momentum indicators and moving averages to realign before the next directional move. Importantly, the absence of aggressive distribution indicates that strong hands continue to hold positions. The ₹4,220 zone has emerged as a critical resistance level, and a decisive breakout above it could trigger fresh buying interest and reignite momentum. Such a move would open the path toward the ₹4,600 zone in the near term,” said Jain.
Until then, he believes the BSE stock price is likely to remain range-bound with a constructive bullish bias.
At 2:45 PM, BSE share price was trading 0.11% lower at ₹4,015.80 apiece on the NSE.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
