Shares of new-age tech stock Meesho could face some turbulence next week as the lock-in on nearly 68% of its pre-IPO shares will expire on 9 June 2026. This would make the total stock worth ~ ₹60,000 crore tradable the very next day, as per JM Financial’s estimates.
Even if one were to assume that only 10% of the company’s stake will be available for trade immediately post-expiry, the total outflows could be ~ ₹6,000 crore, more than the total IPO size of ~ ₹5,400 crore, the brokerage estimated. This high liquidity could weigh heavily on the counter.
It is pertinent to note that several pre-IPO shareholders, most PE and VC firms, have held investments in Meesho for several years and are sitting on significant unrealised gains. In fact, a few had partly liquidated their positions during the IPO. The brokerage believes that more will be eager to do that as the stock trades 60% above the IPO price currently.
Meesho shares had listed on the Indian stock market last year at an approximately 46% premium. However, since its listing in December 2025, the stock has declined in five of the seven months as investors remained concerned about its valuations, given it’s a loss-making entity. The stock is down 4% in just the two trading sessions of June, after shedding 5% in May. Although, a massive 38% rise in April has curtailed its year-to-date (YTD) losses to just 1.7%.
Meesho shares: Buy, sell or hold?
Analysts advise caution while approaching Meesho stock in the run-up to the lock-in expiry, as past instances signal selling pressure around this event.
Other new-age tech stocks like Eternal, Nykaa, Groww and Lenskart had also declined upon their lock-in expiries. Meesho could face a similar fate.
“Given Meesho’s current premium valuation relative to broader India/global peers, there is a high probability that even partial monetisation by existing investors could create a meaningful supply overhang on the stock in the near term,” said JM Financial.
Fundamentally, too, the brokerage remains bearish on the counter as it continues to prioritise growth over profitability. The management has refrained from giving any indicative timelines on operational break-even, despite its monopolistic position in value commerce in India.
Its adjusted EBITDA loss came down meaningfully QoQ in 4QFY26; insourcing through Valmo was down to the low-50s from >60 in 1HFY26. As a result, the brokerage said if in-sourcing levels remain at current levels, margin expansion through logistics cost efficiencies could be slower hereon given Meesho’s high dependence on two partners, Delhivery and Shadowfax. In fact, consensus seems to be building in a break-even by late-FY27E/early FY28E, suggesting lack of triggers for the stock, it added.
Khushi Mistry, Research Analyst at Bonanza, said that the June 9, 2026 expiry is material as ~68% of equity ( ₹60,400 crore) becomes tradeable, with PE/VC holding 58.3% and likely to trim. The January 7 anchor expiry triggered a 5% lower circuit on just ~2% float release, she said, adding that June’s scale dwarfs it.
“Fundamentals remain decent, but the stock trades ~75% above issue price, valuations rich, supply overhang real. Caution is warranted,” she added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
