PSU defence stock Hindustan Aeronautics (HAL) fell 1.36% on NSE in Thursday’s trading session ahead of its January-March quarter (Q4) results announcement.
The PSU stock opened at ₹4,649 apiece today, as compared to the previous close of ₹4,618.50 on Wednesday. The stock touched an intraday low of ₹4,548 per share.
HAL Q4 results 2026 preview
Brokerage firm ICICI Securities anticipates Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) to post a modest top-line decline of 4% year-on-year (YoY) and a rise of 2% quarter-to-quarter (QoQ).
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Brokerage firms anticipate a modest year-on-year decline of 4% in HAL’s revenue, with a potential 10% drop in profit after tax (PAT). EBITDA margins may also contract due to factors like supply chain disruptions and a higher contribution of manufacturing revenue.
The projected revenue decline for HAL in Q4 2026 is primarily attributed to anticipated delays in the delivery of aircraft such as the HTT-40 and LCA Mk1A, as well as a high base from the previous year.
Investors should closely track the delivery timelines for the Tejas Mk1A and HTT-40 aircraft, developments concerning the CATS Warrior drone program, the net working capital cycle, execution ramp-up, any significant provisions, and the sustainability of margins.
For long-term investors, HAL remains structurally strong due to its dominant position in India’s defence sector and a strong order book. However, current valuations are not cheap, and near-term upside may depend on earnings delivery and execution consistency.
Technically, HAL has faced rejection near the 4800 zone. The recent decline has not been accompanied by heavy volumes, suggesting a pullback rather than aggressive distribution. The broader structure remains constructive, with support expected around the 4400–4300 zone.
It further said that HAL’s EBITDA margin could contract YoY, with profit after tax (PAT) down by 10% YoY, pointing to cost absorption and product mix effects.
“Revenue and margins could be under pressure on a high base, but we expect strong QoQ growth in (+70%) with back- ended execution ramp-up,” the firm said.
Meanwhile, brokerage firm Motilal Oswal expects the PSU defence company to report a 4%YoY decline in revenue, largely due to delays in the delivery of the HTT-40 and LCA Mk1A aircraft. The brokerage also projects an 840 basis point contraction in EBITDA margin on account of supply chain disruptions and a higher contribution of manufacturing revenue to the overall mix.
The firm said investors should closely track the delivery timeline for Tejas Mk1A and HTT-40, developments related to the CATS Warrior drone programme, the net working capital cycle, execution ramp-up, any significant provisions, and the sustainability of margins.
HAL had earlier disclosed an order book worth ₹2.54 trillion for FY26. “We have revised our estimates and lowered the target price to ₹5,000 to reflect the slower pace of Tejas Mk1A deliveries and delays in other projects,” the brokerage said in its note.
HAL share price: Should you buy ahead of Q4 results?
According to Seema Srivastava, Senior Research Analyst at SMC Global Securities, HAL continues to remain structurally strong due to its dominant position in India’s defence ecosystem, strong balance sheet, and multi-year order visibility, for long-term investors.
“After the sharp run-up in defence stocks, valuations are no longer cheap. Near-term upside may depend on earnings delivery, execution consistency, and management guidance,” Srivastava said.
Meanwhile, on the technical outlook, Anshul Jain, Head of Research at Lakshmishree, believes that HAL has faced rejection near the crucial 4800 zone, which coincides with the prior weekly swing high and acted as a key supply area.
Jain further noted that the decline has not been accompanied by heavy volumes, suggesting the move is more of a mean-reversion pullback rather than aggressive distribution.
“The broader structure remains constructive, with the stock likely entering a time-and-price correction phase to allow indicators and moving averages to realign. The 20- and 50-day moving averages, placed in the 4400–4300 zone, are expected to act as the next major demand cluster and potential support base. Holding this zone would keep the broader bullish trend structure intact,” Jain added.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
