Gold and silver prices in India declined sharply on Monday, tracking losses in international bullion markets. Persistent concerns over elevated inflation and the prospect of higher interest rates continued to weigh on the appeal of non-yielding safe-haven assets.
MCX gold rate for June delivery fell by ₹1,115, or 0.74%, to ₹1,50,237 per 10 grams. MCX silver futures for July delivery dropped by ₹3,998, or 1.59%, to ₹2,46,939 per kg.
In global markets, bullion prices also remained under pressure. Spot gold prices slipped 0.5% to $4,588.71 per ounce, while US gold futures for June delivery declined 0.9% to $4,600.60. Spot silver prices eased 0.6% to $74.91 per ounce.
Investor sentiment remained cautious amid uncertainty surrounding US monetary policy and geopolitical developments. Markets are closely monitoring US plans to escort foreign vessels through the Strait of Hormuz, alongside signs of progress in US–Iran peace talks.
Comments from US Federal Reserve officials have further dampened sentiment. Policymakers who dissented from last week’s policy stance indicated that the oil price shock stemming from the Iran conflict could limit the central bank’s ability to pivot towards rate cuts, raising the possibility of higher borrowing costs.
Rising crude oil prices are seen reinforcing inflationary pressures, which may prompt central banks to maintain a “higher-for-longer” interest rate environment. This, in turn, typically weighs on gold, as it offers no yield.
Notably, gold prices have corrected nearly 12% since the onset of the US–Iran war.
Gold Price Outlook
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, persistent inflation and expectations of delayed interest rate cuts may cap the upside in gold prices in the near term. However, ongoing geopolitical tensions and steady physical demand are likely to provide underlying support.
He expects gold prices to remain range-bound with a mild bullish bias, with COMEX gold rate likely to trade between $4,500 and $4,700. On the domestic front, MCX gold rate is projected to move within the ₹1,47,000 – ₹1,53,000 range.
From a technical perspective, Kaveri More, Commodity Analyst at Choice Broking, noted that gold is currently trading with a moderately bearish, range-bound trend.
“A decisive breakout above ₹1,53,100 – ₹1,55,500 is required to trigger fresh buying, while key support lies at ₹1,47,900 – ₹1,42,500. On COMEX, support for gold price is seen around $4,500 – $4,400,” said More.
Silver Price Outlook
Silver continues to trade within a broad consolidation range. According to More, key support for MCX silver price is placed between ₹2,30,000 and ₹2,10,000, while resistance is seen at ₹2,67,200 – ₹2,84,400.
“A clear breakout on either side is needed for directional momentum. Along with geopolitical tensions, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, continue to support safe-haven demand, though higher-for-longer rates from the Federal Reserve and peers may cap gains. Overall, gold may stay range-bound with a slight bias, while silver could see gradual upside on breakout,” said More.
Trivedi highlighted that silver is likely to remain more volatile than gold, driven by fluctuations in industrial demand and overall risk sentiment.
He expects MCX silver price to find support around ₹2,42,000 per kg, with resistance near ₹2,60,000. “We recommend adopting a sell-on-rise strategy,” he said.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
