Shares of Eternal Ltd declined 3.5% on April 28, hitting an intraday low of ₹246.50 after opening at ₹255.65, as investors turned cautious ahead of its Q4FY26 results.
The weakness comes despite expectations of a sharp earnings surge, suggesting markets are increasingly focused on execution risks in the quick commerce segment rather than just growth.
Eternal stock has fallen 5% in a week and 7% over three months, though it has gained 6% in one month and 9% over the past year, reflecting a mix of long-term optimism and near-term caution.
With Blinkit now driving a significant share of incremental growth and newer verticals scaling rapidly, the upcoming results will be closely tracked for clarity on profitability, operating leverage, and whether aggressive expansion can translate into sustainable margins.
Eternal Q4 Preview
Brokerages broadly expect a sharp surge in revenue and profit in the March quarter, with estimates pointing to 180–200% YoY growth in revenue and up to 430% jump in net profit, driven by Blinkit’s scale-up and improving operating leverage, while food delivery remains steady.
ICICI Securities expects overall traction to remain healthy, with GOV seen growing 20% YoY and NOV 17.2% YoY, translating into adjusted EBITDA of ₹530 crore and margins of 4.5% of GOV. The brokerage emphasised Blinkit’s outsized contribution, stating,
“Blinkit’s GOV could grow 106.1% YoY and NOV could grow 100.50% YoY, with adjusted Ebitda at ₹44.30 crore and an adjusted Ebitda margin (per cent of GOV) of 0.2%. Overall, we estimate adjusted revenue growth of 208% YoY. We estimate consolidated PAT to be ₹120 crore,” ICICI Securities said.
On profitability, Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) expects Blinkit’s EBITDA margin to remain close to -0.2% of NOV, though other estimates suggest a marginal positive contribution, indicating a sharp improvement from earlier losses. The brokerage has a target price of ₹330, while BNP Paribas has set a target price of ₹380, reflecting confidence in long-term growth even as near-term competition intensifies.
Meanwhile, Kotak Institutional Equities expects strong expansion-led growth, with food delivery GMV likely to rise 20% YoY and Blinkit NMV 99% YoY, driven by rapid store additions to around 2,200 outlets, implying 173 new dark stores in Q4. However, it flagged margin pressures amid rising competition.
“Blinkit’s revenues will not be comparable YoY due to the shift to the 1P model 1QFY26 onwards. We model a 30 bps QoQ expansion in CM and a 20 bps QoQ expansion in Ebitda margin of the food delivery business to 8.8% and 4.6%, respectively. The margin expansion will be partially driven by an increase in the platform fee at the end of the quarter. For the Blinkit business, we model flat contribution and Ebitda margin QoQ as operating leverage of older stores will be offset by pricing action taken due to an increase in competitive intensity,” Kotak said.
Kotak estimates adjusted profit at ₹67.80 crore (up 73.80% YoY) and revenue at ₹17,498 crore (up 200% YoY), while MOSL sees profit at ₹207.50 crore (up 432%) and revenue at ₹16,400 crore (up 180.60% YoY).
Hyperpure is also expected to support topline growth, but key triggers post results will include Blinkit’s profitability trajectory, competitive intensity, and margin sustainability.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
