The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to remain volatile on Friday, tracking mixed signals from global markets as rising crude oil prices and uncertainty over the US-Iran war weigh on sentiment.
The trends on Gift Nifty indicate a higher start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 24,233 level, a premium of nearly 70 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Thursday, the Indian stock market ended sharply lower, extending selloff for the second consecutive session, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing below 24,200 level.
The Sensex crashed 852.49 points, or 1.09%, to close at 77,664.00, while the Nifty 50 settled 205.05 points, or 0.84%, lower at 24,173.05.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex is forming a continuation of the correction on intraday charts, and on daily charts, a bearish candle has been formed, which is largely negative.
“For day traders, the 50-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) or 78,200 would act as an immediate resistance zone. Below this level, the correction wave is likely to continue. On the downside, Sensex could slip to 77,000. Further downward movement may continue, potentially dragging the index to 76,700,” said Shrikant Chouhan, Head Equity Research, Kotak Securities.
On the upside, he believes a move above 78,200 could lead to a bounce back towards 78,500 – 78,800.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, notable call writing was observed at the 24,300 strike, while put writing was seen at the 24,200 level, indicating a narrow trading range and mixed positioning among market participants.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 index formed a bearish candlestick pattern signalling consolidation with corrective bias for the second session in a row after recent strong up move.
“A small negative candle was formed on the daily chart with minor upper shadow. The opening downside gap of Thursday remains unfilled. Technically, this market action indicates a short-term reversal pattern after a hefty upmove from the lows in the last couple of weeks. The bullish pattern like higher tops and bottoms is intact on the daily chart and present weakness could possibly open a new higher bottom of the pattern,” said Nagaraj Shetti, Senior Technical Research Analyst at HDFC Securities.
According to him, the short-term trend of Nifty 50 remains subdued, but the overall near-term pattern remains positive.
“Present weakness is likely to find support around 24,000 – 23,900 levels before bouncing back. Immediate resistance is placed at 24,400,” said Shetti.
Bajaj Broking Research noted that the Nifty 50 index in the last two sessions witnessed profit booking after rallying more than 2,400 points in just 3 weeks which has pushed the daily and weekly stochastic oscillators into overbought territory.
“Nifty 50 index in the last two sessions has reacted lower from the key resistance area of 24,650 – 24,800 being the confluence of the previous breakdown area, 200 days EMA and the 61.8% retracement of the entire decline 26,373 to 22,183. Hence, some consolidation at current level cannot be ruled out,” said the brokerage firm.
It expects the Nifty 50 index to consolidate in the range of 23,600 – 24,800, and stock specific action will continue to remain in focus as we progress through the quarterly earning session.
“Short-term support is positioned around the 23,600 – 23,500 range being the confluence of last week low and 38.2% retracement of the last 3 weeks pullback (22,183 – 24,601),” said Bajaj Broking Research.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index plunged 819.45 points, or 1.43%, to close at 56,305.00 on Thursday, forming an evening star pattern on the daily chart, indicating a potential short-term reversal after the recent up move.
“Bank Nifty index has slipped below its 100 day and 200 day EMA levels, which indicates a weakening medium term structure and cautious sentiment among participants. Going ahead, the 55,900 – 55,800 zone is expected to act as crucial support, as a prior swing low is placed in this region. Any sustainable move below 55,800 may intensify weakness and result in further correction towards the 55,200 level,” said Sudeep Shah, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
On the upside, he believes the 200 day EMA zone of 56,650 – 56,750 will act as an immediate resistance area.
Om Mehra, Technical Research Analyst, SAMCO Securities highlighted that the RSI is placed near 53, indicating easing momentum, while the DMI structure shows +DI losing ground to –DI, suggesting a moderation in directional strength.
“On the upside, 56,800 – 57,000 remains the immediate resistance zone. On the downside, 55,800 – 55,300 becomes the immediate support band. Nifty Bank has faced a clear rejection near a key moving average, with the reversal pattern indicating near-term weakness,” said Mehra.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
