Gold, silver rates today: Gold and silver prices have remained under pressure amid the ongoing US-Iran war, as a stronger US dollar and reduced safe-haven demand continue to weigh on precious metals.
According to market experts, geopolitical tensions generally boost gold as a safe‑haven asset; however, in the current environment, rising oil prices are reinforcing inflation expectations, keeping real yields elevated and supporting the US dollar, which is capping upside in gold and silver.
As a result, gold prices have corrected over 8% since the beginning of the US-Iran war, while silver—being more sensitive to industrial demand and overall risk sentiment—has also fallen over 16%.
Factors driving gold and silver prices
After the US initiated a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, President Donald Trump said Iranian officials had reached out to his administration expressing a willingness “to work a deal.”
Meanwhile, Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian was quoted as saying by Bloomberg that Tehran remained open to continuing peace talks within the bounds of international law.
Oil prices fell to below $100 a barrel, while equities gained on Monday, and the dollar index slipped 0.2%, lending support to gold, which is priced in the US currency.
The drop in energy prices helped ease some inflationary pressures that have weighed on bullion since the conflict began over six weeks ago. This has prompted traders to anticipate that central banks may keep interest rates higher for longer or even raise them further — a negative factor for non-yielding assets.
However, concerns about potential energy supply disruptions and economic strain persist, particularly as the US blockade of Hormuz intensifies pressure on Iran. The US Navy is working to restrict vessels from accessing Iranian ports and coastal routes through the key waterway. With tensions still elevated, US money markets continue to price in less than a 20% probability that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by December.
Are gold and silver prices likely to fall more?
Kaynat Chainwala, AVP – Commodity Research, Kotak Securities, believes that if US naval measures significantly disrupt Iranian crude exports and push oil sustainably above $120/bbl, inflationary pressure would likely strengthen the “higher for longer” interest‑rate narrative, keep the dollar firm, and maintain downside risk for precious metals.
Chainwala further noted that under this scenario, further declines in gold are possible, with silver expected to be even more volatile.
“If oil surges beyond $120 per barrel, gold could face downside pressure, potentially slipping below 4,400, while silver may fall under $67,” she said.
However, if oil prices ease below $90, it may provide strong support to precious metals. In such a case, gold could rally above 5,000, with silver likely to climb past the 80 mark, she added.
Gold and silver prices technical outlook
Kaveri More, Commodity Technical Research at Choice Broking, highlighted that if gold breaks below the crucial support level of 1,49,650 on MCX, the selling pressure may intensify further, dragging prices towards 1,44,930 and potentially 1,39,200 in the coming sessions.
Meanwhile, on the silver prices outlook, More added that the white metal is trading around 238,100, but continues to struggle amid persistent geopolitical uncertainty while facing resistance near 247000 (50DEMA).
“A sustained move below the immediate support of 233600 could trigger fresh weakness, with the next downside levels seen at 224000 and 219000,” More said.
More further recommended investors to remain cautious in the near term, as bullions continue to face volatility unless geopolitical tensions ease and the dollar retreats from current elevated levels.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
