The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are likely to open lower on Monday, tracking weak global market cues, after a jump in crude oil prices as the US-Iran ceasefire talks failed to reach any agreement.
The trends on Gift Nifty also indicate a gap-down start for the Indian benchmark index. The Gift Nifty was trading around 23,771 level, a discount of nearly 330 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close.
On Friday, the Indian stock market jumped, with the benchmark Nifty 50 closing above 24,000 level.
The Sensex surged 918.60 points, or 1.20%, to close at 77,550.25, while the Nifty 50 settled 275.50 points, or 1.16%, higher at 24,050.60.
Here’s what to expect from Sensex, Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty today:
Sensex Prediction
Sensex has shown a strong rebound from lower levels, reinforcing the ongoing recovery trend with improving price structure.
“Key technical levels indicate that support is placed in the 77,000 – 77,100 zone for Sensex, which is likely to act as a demand area on declines, while resistance is seen around 78,000 – 78,200, where upside may face supply pressure,” said Hitesh Tailor, Technical Research Analyst at Choice Equity Broking.
The near-term outlook remains cautiously positive, supported by recovery momentum; however, geopolitical uncertainties may keep volatility elevated, and the index could see consolidation near resistance zones, he added.
Nifty Options Data
In the derivatives segment, significant call writing was seen at the 24,300 strike, with additional positions at 24,500. On the put side, strong writing at the 24,000 strike suggests this level may act as immediate support.
Nifty 50 Prediction
Nifty 50 jumped 5.89% last week and decisively snapped a six-week losing streak. Nifty 50 index formed a strong bullish candlestick pattern on the weekly chart with a higher high and a higher low for the first time in the last eight weeks.
“The broader market structure remains positive, and a further short-covering rally could push the Nifty 50 index towards the 24,300 – 24,500 zone in the near term. The base continues to shift higher, with immediate support now placed around 23,800 levels. Momentum indicators and oscillators are also signaling strength, as the RSI has moved above the 50 mark,” said Nilesh Jain, Head – Technical and Derivatives Research Analyst (Equity Research), Centrum Broking Ltd.
Meanwhile, the India VIX has declined sharply by 25% during the week, easing towards the 19 mark.
According to Jain, any further softening in volatility is likely to provide additional comfort to the bulls.
Dr. Ravi Singh – Chief Research Officer (Research) – Master Capital Services noted that the Nifty 50 index reclaimed its 21-day EMA, currently placed at 23,539, marking a significant bullish shift in short-term momentum.
“For this week, as long as the Nifty 50 index holds above this 23,539 pivot, a ‘buy on dips’ strategy is now approachable. On the upside, the 24,300 level, which aligns with the 55-day EMA, acts as a stiff resistance; however, a sustained move above this could trigger a further rally toward 24,600. Expect renewed optimism as the market finally establishes a stable bottom,” said Singh.
Bank Nifty Prediction
Bank Nifty index ended 1,091.05 points, or 1.99%, higher at 55,912.75 on Friday. For the week, the index surged 8.47%, forming a strong bullish candle.
“Going ahead, the immediate resistance for Bank Nifty is placed in the 56,400 – 56,500 zone. Any sustainable move above this zone could result in Bank Nifty extending its pullback towards 57,000, followed by 57,500 in the short term. On the downside, the zone of 55,400 – 55,300 zone is likely to act as an immediate support,” said Sudeep Shah – Head of Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
Bajaj Broking Research highlighted that the Bank Nifty index witnessed 6,000 points up move in just six trading sessions, and hence, some consolidation cannot be ruled out in the broad range of 56,300 – 54,000.
“A follow through strength above 56,300 will open further upside towards 57,300 and 58,000 levels over the coming week being the 61.8% retracement of the recent decline 61,764 – 49,955. Bank Nifty has immediate support at 53,000 – 54,000 levels being the confluence of the Wednesday gap area and 20 days EMA. Index sustaining above the same will keep the current pullback trend intact,” said the brokerage firm.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations made above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, and not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
