The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Monday, following weakness in global markets as the US-Iran ceasefire talks failed and crude oil prices jumped, intensifying worries that the war in the Middle East will continue for longer than expected.
Asian markets traded lower, while the US stock futures dropped after the US announced to block the Strait of Hormuz, raising fears of global energy crisis.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended sharply higher, with the benchmark indices rising more than 1% each.
The Sensex jumped 918.60 points, or 1.20%, to close at 77,550.25, while the Nifty 50 settled 275.50 points, or 1.16%, higher at 24,050.60.
“The market has transitioned from recovery to a potential stress-test phase. The collapse of geopolitical negotiations reintroduces fragility into the system, making the current rally vulnerable to reversal. While opportunities will emerge in stock-specific and sectoral plays, the broader index is likely to remain range-bound with a negative bias unless stability returns,” said Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder, Livelong Wealth.
Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:
Asian Markets
Asian markets traded lower on Monday amid a surge in crude oil prices. Japan’s Nikkei 225 declined 0.84%, while the Topix fell 0.42%. South Korea’s Kospi plunged 1.83%, while the Kosdaq dropped 1.43%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening.
Gift Nifty Today
Gift Nifty was trading around 23,768 level, a discount of nearly 333 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices.
Wall Street
US stock futures declined overnight. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures tanked 517 points, or 1.1%, while S&P 500 futures dropped 1.1% and Nasdaq 100 futures slipped 1.2%.
On Friday, the US stock market ended mixed. The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 269.23 points, or 0.56%, to 47,916.57, while the S&P 500 eased 7.77 points, or 0.11%, to 6,816.89. The Nasdaq Composite closed 80.48 points, or 0.35%, higher at 22,902.89.
US-Iran Ceasefire Talks
The US-Iran talks in Pakistan ended without a deal due to “excessive demands” made by the American side, a top Iranian official said. US President Donald Trump has ordered a naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, escalating tensions with Iran after talks failed to resolve disputes over Tehran’s nuclear ambitions.
Strait of Hormuz Blockade
US forces will begin implementing the blockade, which applies only to vessels entering or departing Iranian ports, from 10 a.m. New York time Monday, the US Central Command (CENTCOM) said. The measure would be applied impartially to ships from all countries, while still permitting vessels traveling between non-Iranian ports to pass through the Strait, CENTCOM added.
US Inflation
US consumer prices increased by the most in nearly four years in March. US Consumer Price Index (CPI) jumped 0.9% last month. In the 12 months through March, the CPI advanced 3.3% after rising 2.4% in February.
Japanese Bond Yields
Yields on Japan’s benchmark government bonds (JGBs) hit a 29-year high. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.490%, the highest since early June 1997, while the five-year yield rose 4 bps to a record high of 1.900%, Reuters reported.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices jumped as the US Navy prepared to block ships from reaching Iran via the Strait of Hormuz, after the US-Iran ceasefire talks failed to reach a deal to end the war. Brent crude futures jumped 7.05% to $101.91 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate was at $104.16 a barrel, up 7.86%.
Gold Rate Today
Gold prices fell to a near one-week low on Monday, pressured by a stronger dollar. Spot gold price fell 1.1% to $4,694.30 per ounce, its lowest level since April 7. US gold futures for June delivery fell 1.4% to $4,717.80. Spot silver fell 1.9% to $74.45 per ounce.
Dollar
The safe-haven dollar advanced broadly. The US dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, held steady at 99.056, near its highest level since April 7. The euro fell 0.3% to $1.1684, while the British pound declined 0.5% to $1.3398. Against the yen, the US dollar was up 0.4% at 159.83.
(With inputs from Agencies)
