The temporary ceasefire in the Middle East has triggered renewed buying in precious metals, as the truce has kept expectations of global central bank rate cuts intact, prompting safe-haven investors to shift their focus back to gold and silver.
Late on Tuesday, US President Donald Trump said he would suspend attacks on Iran for two weeks, sparking a retreat in oil prices. The recent surge in energy prices had raised concerns over rising inflation and a more hawkish stance from central banks. Gold and silver, which do not generate any income, tend to perform well when interest rates are low.
Tracking developments in the Middle East, Comex gold futures surged by $204 per troy ounce to an intraday high of $4,888, while silver futures advanced by $5.82 per troy ounce to $77.8.
Additionally, the drop in the US dollar has supported gains, with the dollar index falling to 99 in today’s trade, extending its decline to a third day. Last month, the dollar index had gained 2.3% as investors sought the safe-haven asset amid fears of a prolonged conflict.
Although both metals have staged a strong comeback, they continue to trade at a steep discount to their January highs, with gold down nearly 13% and silver lower by around 36%.
Both metals have witnessed heightened volatility since the conflict began on 28 February, as fears of higher energy prices raised concerns that central banks may tighten monetary policy.
Global central banks, including the US Federal Reserve, had earlier signalled caution over the Middle East conflict, expecting its impact on inflation to persist through the year, which weighed on prices.
Policymakers at the US Federal Reserve have said they will proceed with interest rate decisions only once inflation shows clear signs of easing after a sharp rise in US gas prices.
In their recent policy meetings, policymakers at the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England have signalled a cautious stance amid rising inflation risks.
Higher interest rates tend to increase the relative appeal of yield-bearing assets such as government bonds compared to non-yielding precious metals like gold.
Meanwhile, gold and silver prices are likely to react to the minutes of the Federal Reserve’s 17–18 March meeting, which are due for release today.
In addition, key US inflation indicators—including the Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index and the Consumer Price Index (CPI)—scheduled later this week will influence the metals’ direction.
MCX gold gains over ₹4,600, silver prices back above ₹2.46 lakh
In the domestic market, gold futures on MCX surged by ₹4,645 per 10 grams to hit an intraday high of ₹1,54,934, extending their winning streak to a third straight session and taking cumulative gains to 3.5%, based on today’s high.
Silver futures also posted similar gains, with the highly volatile metal rising by ₹15,312 per kilogram to cross the ₹2.46 lakh mark and touch ₹2,46,660. The rally has helped the white metal recover ₹22,160 from its April lows, based on today’s high.
Disclaimer: We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
