Stock market today: The domestic benchmark indices, Nifty 50 and Sensex, are poised to start the week on a down note this Monday, March 30 facing their most significant monthly decline in six years. This trend is mirroring downturns seen across Asia, following a spike in oil prices exceeding $115 per barrel due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East, which has diminished investors’ risk tolerance.
As of 8:04 IST, GIFT Nifty futures were quoted at 22,564.5, suggesting that the Nifty 50 benchmark might open lower than its previous close of 22,819.6 points on Friday.
The conflict between the US and Israel against Iran has now entered its fifth week, expanding further throughout the Middle East. Over the weekend, Yemen’s Houthis, who are aligned with Iran, launched assaults on Israel, raising concerns over potential disruptions to shipping routes in the Arabian Peninsula and the Red Sea.
Asian equity markets fell by 1.9%, with Brent crude oil on track for an unprecedented monthly increase amidst the escalating crisis.
India’s leading indices, the Nifty 50 and Sensex, have dropped approximately 9.5% since the US-Israeli conflict with Iran escalated on February 28.
At the same time, the Indian rupee has depreciated to an all-time low of 94.84 against the dollar.
Market Outlook by Dharmesh Shah, Vice President, ICICI Securities
The Indian equity benchmark down for a fifth straight week, closing 1.20% lower at 22,818, amid Geopolitical headwinds, rising oil, and Rupee volatility. The broader market performance was mixed with Midcap and Smallcap segment declined ~1.40% and ~0.60%. Barring IT and Pharma, the broader market saw a sell-off, particularly across Defense, Realty, and PSU Banks.
Technical Outlook
- The price action has resulted into doji-like candle with lower high-lower low structure in weekly time-frame, indicating heightened volatility amid geopolitical uncertainty.
- With the looming threat of a US-Iran conflict, the market remains in a corrective phase after multiple failed attempts to hold above short-term averages.
- For a sustainable recovery to take hold, the Nifty 50 must reclaim its short-term moving average (23,800) and establish a ‘higher high-high low’; pattern on the weekly chart in the upcoming truncated week.
- Failure to do so amid escalated geopolitical tension, possibility of prolonged correction cannot be ruled out could wherein critical long-term support is placed in the 21,900-21,700 zone based on:
a) Placement of rising trend line drawn adjoining past two years low, at 22,000
b) Since 2003, on multiple occasions Nifty 50 has respected long term 200 weeks EMA (barring 2008 & 2020), placed at 21,930
c) April 2025 panic low is placed at 21,743
5. Based on historical data patterns – including the magnitude and depth of the bull market correction, geopolitical risks, and weakening momentum & breadth indicators, we believe the market is approaching its cyclical lows.
• Historically, these oversold conditions have offered optimal entry points for constructing medium-to-long-term portfolios. Hence, any signs of de-escalation of geopolitical conflict and cool off in crude oil prices would result into revival in momentum. Our thesis is based on following long term observations:
A) Past 25 years data suggest that, there have been 8 occasions where bull market corrections arrested with an average of 17%. With 15% correction already in place (since Feb high of 26,341), thereby approaching price-wise maturity
B) Time Wise, since 2014, Indian equities have witnessed 3 major corrective phases, each lasting an average of ~20 months. The current correction, completed 18 months, appears to be approaching maturity
C) Past four decades data suggest that price wise median correction matures around 11%. Buying during such a panic scenario has garnered >25% returns in next 6 months
D) Whenever 85% of Nifty 500 universe trades below their 50 and 200 SMA and Net of daily advance-decline suggest that only 30 stocks are in positive territory, signals capitulated extremes. Post these extremes, the index has delivered a median rally of ~23% in the subsequent 6-12 months period.
E) With the 15% decline (off Feb high of 26,341), Nifty 50 has hauled weekly stochastic oscillator in extreme oversold territory (placed at 6).
Stocks To Buy This Week – Dharmesh Shah
Dharmesh Shah of ICICI Securities recommends buying Bharti Airtel Ltd.
Buy Bharti Airtel in the range of ₹1,790-1,845. He said Bharti Airtel share price target of ₹2,032 with a stop loss of ₹1,684.
Disclaimer: The Research Analyst or his relatives or I-Sec do not have actual/beneficial ownership of 1% or more securities of the subject company, at the end of 27/03/2026 or have no other financial interest and do not have any material conflict of interest.
The views and recommendations provided in this analysis are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We strongly advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and individual circumstances may vary.
