Crude oil prices resumed their upward trajectory in Thursday’s trade (26 March) as traders grew increasingly sceptical about the prospects of a ceasefire between the US and Iran to end the month-long conflict that has triggered a global energy crisis and raised concerns over economic stability.
Brent crude rose 5.4% to $102.49 per barrel, compared with around $70 before the war began. Prices have rebounded nearly 10% from the previous session’s low of $93.45. Meanwhile, US benchmark crude gained 5.4% to $95.2 per barrel.
After a brief pullback in recent sessions, oil prices regained momentum as geopolitical tensions intensified. US President Donald Trump warned Iran to “get serious” about a deal to end nearly four weeks of fighting, after Tehran said it was reviewing Washington’s proposal but maintained that no formal talks were underway.
While Iran had earlier rejected US proposals and outlined its own conditions, markets interpreted the latest developments as a possible, albeit uncertain, shift toward negotiations.
As the conflict drags on—with Israel launching fresh strikes on Iran’s Isfahan and Tehran retaliating—governments across Asia are bracing for worst-case scenarios.
Thailand has raised gasoline prices by as much as 22%, the Philippines has suspended its wholesale electricity spot market, and farmers in India and China are grappling with rising agrochemical costs, according to Bloomberg.
Strait of Hormuz disruptions deepen global supply concerns
The ongoing conflict has increasingly centred around the Strait of Hormuz—the narrow gateway for global energy shipments. Iran has effectively shut the critical passage, through which nearly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply flows, in response to US and Israeli strikes.
The US had earlier set a deadline for Iran to reopen the waterway or face intensified attacks on its energy infrastructure. President Trump has since extended the deadline by five days, having previously threatened to target Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude export terminal.
Since the conflict escalated on 28 February, tanker movement through the Strait of Hormuz has nearly come to a halt, severely disrupting global oil flows through one of the world’s most vital shipping routes.
Elevated crude prices have already prompted major central banks—including the US Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, and Bank of England—to adopt a cautious stance, revising inflation forecasts upward and delaying rate-cut expectations.
Markets have also scaled back expectations of US Fed rate cuts in 2026, compared with earlier projections of up to three cuts at the start of the year.
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