The India VIX, having surged to a high of 27.17 on March 23, has begun to stabilise and is presently (Wednesday, March 25) around the 24.5 level. Experts, believe that this gradual easing in volatility index today is offering some comfort to the bulls, indicating a temporary pause in market anxiety.
The Nifty 50 today rose 2.31% to 23,444 . 75, while the BSE Sensex added 2.24% to 75,737.88, as of 13:49 IST. If advances hold today, this will be the second consecutive session of gains.
Adding to the positive undertone, crude oil prices have softened after recently hitting a high of $119.3. This decline is a meaningful tailwind for India, given its status as a major oil-importing nation, and helps ease macro pressures such as inflation and currency stability, highlighted Sudeep Shah – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities.
India VIX so far
As of this year, India VIX has increased by over 157%, signaling a significant rise in market uncertainty in 2026. The index has risen sharply from 14.36 a month ago and 19.79 last week, underscoring a significant jump in volatility expectations.
With an intraday high of 25.23, the VIX today continues to hover near recent highs, indicating that traders are preparing for sharp swings in the Nifty 50 and BSE Sensex. Elevated levels typically signal a risk-off sentiment, driven by global uncertainties and fluctuations in crude oil prices, believes experts.
As per experts, this recent spike is primarily due to geopolitical tensions, with analysts indicating that volatility may stay high in the short term. Although the recent drop in crude oil prices provides some comfort, the markets remain highly reactive to global events.
Chiefly, India VIX witnessed a sharper rise on the backdrop of crises in the Strait of Hormuz, as these incidents affect India on various levels—interrupting energy supplies, undermining macroeconomic stability, and causing foreign investor withdrawals—resulting in a more intense volatility surge compared to standard oil-related disruptions.
“Technically, the 22.5–22 zone on the India VIX is a crucial support band to watch. A sustained move below this range could signal further cooling in volatility, which in turn may allow the Nifty 50 to extend its ongoing pullback rally in the sessions ahead,” said Shah.
Further, Rajesh Bhosale, Equity Technical and Derivative Analyst at Angel One, added that India VIX has cooled off from its intra-week high of around 27 amid some positive developments on the West Asia war front, alongside a ~900-point bounce in Nifty 50 from recent lows.
However, Bhosale believes that VIX remains elevated, and until there is clear confirmation on the geopolitical front, volatility is likely to stay high—hence, avoiding complacent bets is advisable.
What does it signal for the Indian stock market and Nifty 50?
Sunny Agrawal – Head of Fundamental Research at SBI Securities, believes that the near-term market outlook may remain volatile amid evolving geopolitical developments and intermittent FII outflows. However, following the recent correction, valuations have turned more comfortable, offering a relatively better risk-reward proposition for medium-term investors.
Agrawal emphasied that while Q4FY26 earnings could see some pressure due to elevated crude oil prices and currency movements, the broader earnings trajectory remains intact.
Key factors according to Agrawal is to monitor in near term include progress toward de-escalation in the Middle-East conflict, management commentary during the Q4 earnings season, trends in crude oil prices, and election outcomes across four states and one Union Territory.
“Overall, despite near-term volatility, the correction has improved entry points, positioning the market more favorably for investors with a medium-term perspective,” said Agrawal.
Nifty 50
Rajesh Bhosale of Angel One, said that from a technical perspective, Nifty 50 is witnessing a pullback after the recent sell-off, with the 38.2% retracement of the decline placed around the 23,800 mark as the next key resistance.
“On the downside, the bullish gap formed near 23,000—supported by a strong gap-up Marubozu candle—acts as immediate support, indicating a potential island reversal formation,” added Bhosale.
According to Sudeep Shah – Technical and Derivatives Research at SBI Securities, from a market structure perspective, leadership is clearly visible in heavyweight stocks. Large-cap names such as HDFC Bank, Reliance Industries, and Bharti Airtel are driving the Nifty 50 higher, lending stability to the index.
“At the same time, broader markets are showing strong participation, with both midcap and smallcap indices outperforming and trading over 2% higher,” said Agrawal.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
