The Indian rupee began trading at 93.95 against the US Dollar on Thursday, March 25, but remains close to its record lows near 94 against the dollar.
On Wednesday, March 24 the currency appreciated slightly due to increased optimism about easing tensions between the US and Iran, despite mixed reports; however, market fluctuations led to most of that gain being surrendered, resulting in only a small increase by the end of the day.
On Tuesday, March 24, the Indian rupee experienced a slight recovery, ending 12 paise stronger and breaking its streak of three consecutive days at record lows. This rebound occurred as global indicators became mixed, providing the currency with some relief after facing significant pressure recently.
The primary factor supporting the rupee was the decline in oil prices. Brent crude, which had risen to nearly $114 the previous week, fell closer to the $100 mark, while WTI crude dropped below $88, experiencing a sharp decline during the session.
According to experts, yet, the uncertainty persists. Although markets responded optimistically to hopes for de-escalation, the situation remains unresolved. Iran’s refusal to confirm any ongoing discussions with the United States continues to fuel uncertainty. This indicates that geopolitical risks are still very real, and any adverse news could swiftly shift sentiment.
The influence is apparent in India’s economic landscape. The impact of global tensions is now evident in local data as well. HSBC’s India Composite PMI experienced a significant decline, falling to 56.5 in March from 58.9, which was below expectations. This represents the slowest growth rate since October 2022, with both manufacturing and services experiencing a slowdown.
In simpler terms, the global conflict is not only impacting markets but also hindering business activity in India. This adds yet another layer of complexity, believes market experts.
Rupee outlook
According to Amit Pabari, MD, Research Team, CR Forex Advisors, the rupee has found some near-term stability, supported by softer oil prices and a weaker dollar, but underlying risks still remain.Uncertainty around the Middle East situation continues to keep the currency vulnerable to sudden swings.
“Technically, 93.90–94.00 is likely to act as a strong psychological resistance, while 92.80–93.00 may offer support,” added Pabari.
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