The Indian stock market benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50, are expected to open lower on Monday, as inflation fears due to the escalating US-Iran war rattled global markets.
Asian markets traded sharply lower, while the US stock market slid last week, with the S&P 500 closing at six month-low, as the US-Iran war entered its fourth week.
This week, investors will watch out for key stock market triggers, including the developments over the US-Iran war, trends in crude oil prices, FII flows, rupee movement, and other domestic and global economic data releases.
On Friday, the Indian stock market ended higher, led by a short-covering rally after the previous session’s sharp decline.
The Sensex gained 325.72 points, or, 0.44%, to close at 74,532.96, while the Nifty 50 settled 112.35 points, or 0.49%, higher at 23,114.50.
“We maintain our cautious stance given the prevailing negative sentiment and recommend preferring hedged positions over naked trades until greater stability emerges. As most sectors continue to face pressure, participants should maintain a stock-specific approach, focusing on relatively stronger stocks for long opportunities and weaker counters for short positions,” said Ajit Mishra – SVP, Research, Religare Broking Ltd.
Here are key global market cues for Sensex today:
Asian Markets
Asian markets slumped on Monday as escalating US-Iran war weighed on investor sentiment. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan fell 1.2%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 plunged 5%, while the Topix declined 4.4%. South Korea’s Kospi cracked 6% and the Kosdaq dropped nearly 5%. Hong Kong Hang Seng index futures indicated a lower opening.
Gift Nifty Today
Gift Nifty was trading around 22,808 level, a discount of nearly 332 points from the Nifty futures’ previous close, indicating a gap-down start for the Indian stock market indices.
Wall Street
US stock market ended sharply lower on Friday, with the S&P 500 closing at its lowest in six months, as the US-Israeli war against Iran entered its fourth week,
The Dow Jones Industrial Average declined 0.96% to 45,577.47, while the S&P 500 plunged 1.51% to end the session at 6,506.48, its lowest since September. The Nasdaq closed 2.01% lower at 21,647.61. For the week, the S&P 500 lost 1.9%, while the Nasdaq and Dow slumped just over 2%.
Nvidia stock price dropped 3.15%, Apple share price fell 0.39%, Microsoft shares declined 1.84%, Meta Platforms stock tanked 2.15%, Alphabet shares declined 2.27% and Tesla stock price cracked 3.24%. Super Micro Computer stock crashed 33.32%.
US-Iran War
The US-Iran war has entered its fourth week, and both the countries have threatened to target critical infrastructure as the conflict in the Middle East deepens. Iran said the Strait of Hormuz would be “completely closed” immediately if the US follows up on President Donald Trump’s threat to attack its power plants. Trump late Saturday had set a 48-hour deadline to open the strait.
Core Sector Growth
Production growth in India’s eight core infrastructure sectors slowed to a three-month low of 2.3% in February. These eight sectors expanded by 3.4% in the same month last year. During April-February, the cumulative production growth in the infrastructure sector was 2.9% compared to 4.4% in the same period of the last financial year.
Bond Yields
The 10-year US Treasury yields were at an eight-month high of 4.4110%, having climbed 44 basis points since the war began.
The Japanese government bond yields climbed to a two-month high. The benchmark 10-year JGB yield rose 5.5 basis points (bps) to 2.315%, the highest since January 21. The 20-year JGB yield climbed 6 bps to 3.180%, while the five-year yield rose 5 bps to 1.720%. The two-year yield increased 2.5 bps to 1.29%.
FPI Selling
Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI) sold Indian equities worth more than ₹1 lakh crore in 2026 so far. According to NSDL data, FPI outflows from the Indian stock market since the beginning of this year touched ₹1,01,527 crore. In March so far, FPI selling was ₹88,180 crore.
Crude Oil Prices
Crude oil prices were stable after a sharp rise as Trump gave Iran a 48-hour ultimatum to open the Strait of Hormuz or face decimation of its energy infrastructure. Brent crude oil price eased 0.68% to $111.43 a barrel, while the US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures fell 0.13% to $98.10.
Gold Rate Today
Gold prices extended losses after tumbling nearly 11% last week in its worst week since 1983. Spot gold price plunged 3.3% to $4,343.40 an ounce. Silver prices declined 3.4% to $65.61 an ounce.
Dollar
The dollar rose as retaliatory threats escalated in the US-Iran war boosted demand for haven assets. The dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies, rose 0.03% to 99.53. The yen rose 0.06% to 159.11 per dollar, the euro slid 0.06% to $1.1563, and sterling weakened 0.06% to $1.3331.
(With inputs from Reuters)
