The US stock market is likely to open flat on Thursday, March 19, as investors continue to monitor tensions in the Middle East, which have further escalated as attacks on energy infrastructure intensify, pushing oil prices toward $120 per barrel.
Futures of the three key averages — the S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq Composite — were trading largely flat, up around 0.10%, in pre-market trade.
In the previous session, all three key indices finished deep in the red, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling 1.64% to its lowest level in four months, putting it on track for its worst monthly decline since 2022.
International benchmark Brent crude futures jumped another 11% in trade to reach the day’s high of $119.13 per barrel. Earlier this month, prices had reached a four-year high of $119.50. So far this month, crude prices have surged nearly 60%.
US Federal Reserve holds rates steady for second time
As widely expected, the US Federal Reserve left its benchmark rate unchanged for the second time but warned that inflation could remain elevated in 2026 due to the Iran conflict, leaving little hope for near-term rate cuts.
The Federal Open Market Committee, on Wednesday, voted 11–1 to hold the benchmark federal funds rate in a range of 3.5% to 3.75%. The ongoing US-Iran conflict has also prompted policymakers to revise the inflation forecast upward to 2.7% by the end of 2026—up from the previous forecast of 2.4%.
US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell said he expects higher energy prices due to the war in the Middle East to boost inflation in the near term, adding, however, that the broader economic implications remain uncertain.
Geopolitical tensions escalate as energy infrastructure becomes a key target
As G7 countries showed little interest in joining a joint military effort with the US, President Donald Trump intensified attacks, alongside Israel, even as energy prices remained elevated.
The US and Israel targeted the Iran’s energy infrastructure, with Israel reportedly launching attacks on Iran’s South Pars gas field on Wednesday.
South Pars is the Iranian segment of the world’s largest natural gas deposit, which Iran shares with Qatar across the Gulf. Although Trump denied any prior knowledge of Israel attacking South Pars, he warned that if Iran continued targeting Qatar’s energy facilities, the US would “massively blow up the entirety of the South Pars gas field.”
In retaliation, Tehran launched a barrage of attacks on energy infrastructure across the Gulf region, with Iranian missiles reportedly damaging a key liquefied natural gas (LNG) export facility.
Iranian missiles struck Qatar’s Ras Laffan, the world’s largest liquefied natural gas (LNG) hub, causing “extensive damage,” AFP reported. Drones also struck a Saudi oil refinery on the Red Sea and caused fires at two others in Kuwait in the latest attacks, as per the report.
The US and Israel had previously refrained from targeting Iran’s energy production facilities in the Gulf, as such a move could invite retaliation against other producers and make it harder for global markets to recover from what has already been one of the biggest disruptions to energy supplies.
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