US-Iran war: Crude oil prices declined on Wednesday, March 18, after reports indicated a rise in US crude inventories in the American Petroleum Institute.
Brent futures lost $2.31, or 2.24%, to $101.15 a barrel, while US West Texas Intermediate crude fell $3.20, or 3.21%, to $92.46.
Back home, crude oil prices on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) also followed a similar pattern, shedding 2.62% to ₹8,604 per barrel.
Crude oil prices have skyrocketed over 40% since the beginning of the US-Iran war, which has disrupted energy supply routes through the Strait of Hormuz and sharply affected global energy markets, especially in Asia.
Before the war, crude oil in international markets was trading at around $73 per barrel on February 27.
What’s driving crude oil prices today?
US crude inventories increased by 6.56 million barrels in the week ended March 13, according to data from the American Petroleum Institute, a Reuters report suggested.
On the supply front, Iraq’s oil minister said the federal government and the Kurdistan Regional Government have reached an agreement to restart crude exports to Turkey’s Ceyhan energy hub from Wednesday, with flows expected to begin at 10 a.m. local time.
Meanwhile, National Oil Corporation said that oil flows from the Sharara oilfield were being gradually rerouted through alternative pipelines after a fire, adding that production remains unaffected and no casualties were reported.
In geopolitical developments, Iran confirmed that its security chief, Ali Larijani, was killed by Israel, marking the most senior casualty since the onset of the US-Israel conflict. A senior Iranian official also said the country’s new supreme leader has rejected de-escalation proposals conveyed through intermediaries.
The US military said it carried out strikes on Iranian coastal sites near the Strait of Hormuz, citing threats from Iranian anti-ship missiles to global shipping routes.
Mingyu Gao, chief researcher for energy and chemicals at China Futures, was quoted as saying by Reuters that the killing of Larijani and the US strikes on Iranian coastal positions have raised hopes that the conflict could conclude sooner.
Crude oil prices outlook
Anindya Banerjee, Head of Commodity and Currency Research, Kotak Securities, believes that the US-initiated 86 million barrel release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve through a structured exchange mechanism is not a permanent supply addition; it has helped ease immediate market panic and soften prices in the short term.
On the technical outlook, Banerjee said that Brent is now approaching a crucial support around $99 — a break below this could trigger stop-loss driven selling and may also hint at early signs of de-escalation or improvement in supply flows.
“WTI has similar support near $90, while on MCX Brent futures, ₹8,350 remains a key level to watch. However, with nearly 7–8 million barrels per day still disrupted, the market remains highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, and any sustained downside will depend on visibility of supply restoration,” Banerjee said.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. Please consult with an investment advisor before making any investment decisions.
