US-Iran war: With no signs of de-escalation in the US-Israel-Iran war, gold and silver prices have remained sideways, while global equity markets have remained under pressure. The Indian stock market is also not insulated from this geopolitical tension, as Dalal Street indices witnessed a sharp sell-off across segments.
The Nifty 50 index today broke below the psychological 23,000 mark during the early morning dealings, but it recovered from the intraday low and touched an intraday high of 23,501, more than 2.35% from today’s low of 22,955. The key benchmark index closed at 23,408, around 2% higher than the intraday low of 22,955.
In contrast to the Indian stock market, the MCX gold rate today witnessed a sharp sell-off and is currently oscillating around ₹1,55,000 per 10 gm, down 2% from Friday’s close of ₹1,58,466. Likewise, the MCX silver rate today is oscillating around ₹2,48,500 per kg, losing over 4% against Friday’s close of ₹2,59,435 per kg.
Speaking on the short-term outlook of gold and silver prices, Kaynat Chainwala, AVP — Commodity Research at Kotak Securities, said that precious metals may remain soft in the near term, with sharp moves in either direction unlikely in the absence of a significant shift in the geopolitical or policy outlook.
“Traders eye the upcoming FOMC policy meeting for updated economic projections for clues on the policy outlook as the Fed is widely expected to maintain the status quo on rates. On the data front, U.S. PPI and weekly jobless claims will be in focus for signals on the broader economy. Having said that, with no signs of de-escalation in the ongoing US–Iran war, geopolitical risk remains the dominant market driver in the near term,” the Kota Securities expert said.
Why are gold and silver rates falling today?
On why gold and silver rates are falling despite escalation in the US-Iran war, Amit Goel, Chief Global Strategist at PACE 360, said, “This war is different from previous wars. In this war, uncertainty is fueling crude oil prices, which have renewed inflation fears worldwide. In the wake of rising inflation, the chances of a US Fed rate cut are minimal. This dent to the US Fed rate cut bet has worked as a taper for the gold and silver price rally.”
Amit Goel of PACE 360 said the market is expecting the US Fed to turn hawkish if inflation rises above a certain threshold, as the US-Iran conflict has already overstretched and there is still no sign of de-escalation in the Middle East crisis.
Another reason that also works as a taper for the gold price rally is the lower demand in Saudi Arabia. Amit Goel of PACE 360 said that the gold price is available at a discount of $30 to $40 per ounce in Saudi Arabia, which accounts for 20% to 25% ofglobal gold demand. This is also a reason for a sideways move in gold and silver rates despite escalation in the US-Iran war.
Nifty may not fall below 22,000
Expecting the Nifty 50 index to sustain above 22,000 levels, Rakesh Bansal, Co-founder & Co-partner of Rakesh Bansal Ventures, said, “Investors have taken calls in bulk at 22,000, which signals the 50-stock index may not break below this crucial support in the current fall. So, one should book profit in gold and silver and look at stocks for big gains as it seems the market has discounted the US-Iran war.”
Amit Goel said that put writers are not retail investors. Generally put writers belong to HNI, institutions (DII and FII), and some section of ace or smart investors.
Echoing Rakesh Bansal’s views, Amit Goel of PACE 360 said that investors have taken put writers in bulk at 22,000, signalling a trend reversal on Dalal Street. He advised investors to look at data centre, it and banking stocks to buy in a calibrated manner.
US-Iran war: What should be your investment strategy?
Unveiling the investment strategy amid the US-Iran war, Rakesh Bansal said that an investor should book profit in gold and silver and start accumulating quality stocks available at a whopping discount.
Amit Goel of PACE 360 said that investing in the Nifty 50 ETF can be a good option as it is expected to rise around 5% to 8% by the end of April 2026.
Key Takeaways
- The Nifty 50 index is expected to hold above 22,000, indicating a potential market reversal.
- Investors should consider reallocating from gold and silver to stocks as geopolitical tensions affect market dynamics.
- The US-Iran conflict impacts inflation expectations, influencing investors’ strategies and market behavior.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
