Stock market crash: Following weak global cues amid the overstretched US-Iran war, soaring oil prices, and renewed inflation and slowdown concerns, the key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market have been under intensified selling pressure for the last two weeks. On Friday last week, the benchmark indices ended lower for the third straight week, as the market had already begun discounting the US-Iran war well before its outbreak.
In the last two weeks, the Nifty 50 index crashed from 25,496 to 23,151, logging a 9.20% dip after the outbreak of the Middle East tensions. Likewise, the BSE Sensex nosedived from 82,248 to 74,563, logging 7,685 points or 9.35% dip after the outbreak of the US-Iran war.
Why is the Indian stock market falling?
On the reasons dragging the Indian stock market, Hariprasad K, SEBI-registered Research Analyst and Founder at Livelong Wealth, said the Indian stock market is under significant corrective pressure amid deteriorating global risk sentiment, rising crude oil prices, escalating geopolitical tensions in West Asia, and persistent selling by foreign institutional investors.
The Livelong Wealth expert said a sharp shift in global risk appetite triggered broad-based profit-taking across sectors, resulting in one of the steepest weekly declines in recent months. As geopolitical uncertainty intensified and energy prices surged, global investors appeared to reduce their exposure to emerging markets, leading to notable capital outflows from Indian equities.
Stock market crash: What Nifty 50 chart reflects?
Speaking on the outlook of the Nifty 50 index, Mehul Kothari, Deputy Vice President — Technical Research at Anand Rathi, said, “Despite the recent sharp decline, the broader market structure still appears intact, suggesting that the current move could be part of a corrective phase rather than a structural breakdown,” adding, “A sustained move above 23,500 may help restore confidence, while holding above the 22,900 support zone would be crucial for maintaining the broader structure.”
However, the Anand Rathi expert maintained that the Nifty 50 index is currently approaching the gap zone near 22,900, which was formed in April 2025 during the earlier phase of the rally. Interestingly, the index has now retraced nearly 61.8% of the entire rally from the low of 21,743 to the recent high of 26,373, bringing it close to an important technical support area.
“A decisive move below 22,900 could open the doors for the 22,800 – 21,800 zone, which may remain volatile and confusing for traders due to the absence of strong intermediate supports,” Mehul Kothari of Anand Rathi said.
Outlook for Sensex today
Sharing an outlook for the 30-stock index, Hariprasad K of Livelong Wealth, said that Sensex has slipped below the 76,000 region, a level that had previously provided stability during recent trading sessions. The 74,000 level is currently acting as an important support region.
“If selling pressure persists and the index fails to sustain above this zone, the next meaningful support could emerge near the 73,000 level, where previous buying interest had been observed. On the upside, the 75,500 level is expected to act as immediate resistance while the 76,000 region now represents a significant supply zone where selling interest may re-emerge,” Hariprasad K added.
Impediments in trend reversal
Expecting the selling pressure to continue, Avinash Gorakshkar, a SEBI-registered fundamental equity analyst, said that several Middle East countries — Kuwait, the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Qatar — have announced partial shutdowns of oil and gas production. This partial shutdown decision is highly tricky as it would take from 15 to 30 days to restart production after the shutdown.
On how the partial shutdown in oil and gas production by these OPEC countries would impact key benchmark indices of the Indian stock market, Anuj Gupta, a SEBI-registered market expert, said, “The partial shutdown of oil and gas production is going to hurt the equity markets due to soaring crude oil prices. The Brent Crude oil is expected to touch $120 per barrel soon, and on breaking above this resistance, the Brent Crude oil price may touch $150 per barrel in the near term.”
Anuj Gupta said that a production halt in Qatar would cost around 20% of the world’s LNG supply. So, the partial shutdown of oil and gas production is expected to weigh on the Indian market even as de-escalation in the US-Iran war occurs.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts or broking companies, not Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decisions.
