The Nifty 50 February 2026 futures contract settled 1% higher on Tuesday, February 24, while the Bank Nifty outperformed, rallying 3.1% during the expiry month.
Nifty’s February series rollover stood at 68.2%, falling below the previous expiry’s 70.8% and the three- and six-month averages of 70.6% and 75.6%, as the March series commenced with 142.73 lakh shares in open interest (OI), reflecting a decline of 31.54 lakh shares despite a 1% rise in prices.
According to Axis Direct, the contraction in open interest alongside rising prices indicates a cautious undertone, suggesting that the move was largely driven by short-covering rather than aggressive fresh long positions.
In contrast, Bank Nifty rollovers came in at 74.3%, higher than the previous expiry’s 71.2% and above the three-month average of 73%, though marginally below the six-month average of 76.3%. The March series opened with 14.29 lakh shares in OI after adding 0.79 lakh shares, supported by a 3.1% price rally.
The synchronized rise in both open interest and price signals a healthy long build-up and strong bullish conviction in the banking sector.
Market-wide rollovers were recorded at 93.36%, slightly lower than the previous 93.69% and below the historical three and six-month averages of 94.5% and 94.9%, respectively. Meanwhile, rollover costs for Nifty 50 and Bank Nifty compressed to 0.70% and 0.64%, respectively, from 0.87% and 0.83%.
The compression in cost-of-carry reflects a cooling in rollover aggressiveness and suggests limited urgency among bulls to carry forward positions.
Axis Direct expects the Nifty March series to expire in the 24,500 – 26,000 range. Significant call resistance is seen in the 26,000 – 26,500 zone, while put support is placed at 24,500 – 25,000. The 25,500 – 26,000 band is likely to act as a key pivot level due to heavy two-sided activity.
Stocks and Sector Highlights
Higher rollovers compared to the previous expiry were observed in Coal India, Hero MotoCorp, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance, Bosch and Colgate-Palmolive India. On the other hand, NTPC, Larsen & Toubro (L&T), Sun Pharmaceutical Industries, Vedanta and Power Grid Corporation of India recorded relatively lower rollovers.
FII Positioning
Foreign institutional investors (FIIs) have turned cautiously constructive in the current series. The FII Futures Index Long ratio has risen to 21% from 12% in the previous expiry.
FIIs initiated the new series with 39,296 long contracts in index futures, an increase of 12,032 contracts over the previous expiry. Meanwhile, index futures shorts stood at 1,45,367 contracts, down by 57,522 from 2,02,889 contracts at the last expiry, indicating a reduction in bearish bets.
Overall, the data suggests selective bullish positioning, with stronger conviction in banking stocks while broader market participation remains measured.
