Crude oil prices hovered near a six-month high, driven by escalating tensions in US-Iran that significantly impact market sentiment. As of February 20, 2026, MCX Crude Oil futures for March 2026 expiry traded flat at ₹6050 per barrel after an early gain.
Brent crude futures have increased by 33 cents, or 0.5%, hitting $71.99, while US West Texas Intermediate crude has risen by 62 cents, or 0.9%, reaching $67.05 as of 0715 GMT, according to Reuters.
Following President Donald Trump’s ultimatum for Iran to negotiate a nuclear agreement, WTI crude oil futures rose above $66/bbl, reaching a six-month high and poised for a weekly gain of over 5%.
Trump signaled that negotiations would likely have no more than 10 to 15 days to advance.
The US has also increased its military presence in the Middle East to the greatest extent since the 2003 invasion of Iraq, which increases the likelihood of a longer-term and more extensive operation than the overnight attack on Iran’s nuclear facilities last June.
Further, heightened US-Iran tensions, stalled nuclear negotiations, and joint naval drills between Iran and Russia in the pivotal Strait of Hormuz—a crucial route for nearly 20% of global oil transportation—have escalated risk premiums, propelling Brent prices to approximately $69.15 per barrel.
Moreover, the breakdown of peace talks between Russia and Ukraine in Geneva has ignited fears of extended sanctions and supply disruptions, bolstering WTI prices. Additionally, shrinking crude inventories in the US and China illustrate a tightening market, despite OPEC+’s planned output increases.
Technical Views – Here’s what experts say
Apurva Sheth, Head of Market Perspectives and Research, SAMCO Securities highlighted that WTI Crude has staged a sharp recovery from the $55 zone. Every rally has found support around key Fibonacci retracement level of 50% or 78.6%. It’s forming a bullish higher high higher low structure and pushing towards $66. The structure now resembles a Flag consolidation below a falling trendline, with key support emerging around $62 to $63 and a deeper base near $59. RSI remains above 50, indicating positive momentum despite short term volatility.
Further, Apurva believes that from a supercycle perspective, this setup is significant. Historically, in commodity upcycles, leadership rotates in a sequence.
Sheth explained that gold moves first as liquidity expands and real rates peak. Silver and base metals follow as growth expectations improve. Energy typically joins later, when industrial momentum and inflationary pressures broaden. Currently, it is the US-Iran tensions which seems to be driving the prices higher.
“However, we believe crude oil has much more tailwinds like US shale revolution coming to an end, under investments in capacities, upcoming surge in demand as countries like China build up its strategic reserves that are driving the prices up.
Crude has lagged but is now compressing under resistance. A decisive breakout above $66 can trigger the next leg higher to levels of $72-73. A breakout will potentially confirm that the energy phase of the commodity supercycle is underway,” added Sheth,
According to Jigar Trivedi, Senior Research Analyst at IndusInd Securities, MCX crude oil March has appreciated by more than 5% in the week so far, may stay bullish for couple of weeks amid risk of escalation of a geopolitical risk and ₹6,300/bbl is next resistance. On the flip side ₹6,000/bbl is a floor.
Disclaimer: The views and recommendations above are those of individual analysts, experts and broking companies, not of Mint. We advise investors to check with certified experts before making any investment decision.
