India’s economic expansion has frequently outpaced the forecasts presented in the Economic Survey. For instance, growth for 2025-26 is expected to reach 7.4%, higher than the 6.3-6.8% range projected in the pre‑Budget document.
In 2023-24, GDP growth came in at 9.2%, well above the Survey’s estimate of 6-6.8%.
For 2024-25, however, the economy grew 6.5%, broadly in line with the projected 6.5-7% range. The analysis shows that the only significant undershoot occurred in 2022-23, when actual growth of 7.6% fell short of the 8-8.5% projection.
In 2021-22, the Economic Survey did not provide a forecast due to the uncertainties surrounding Covid‑19. Growth for that year eventually stood at 9.7%, driven largely by a favourable base effect.
By contrast, 2020-21 recorded a contraction of 5.8%, reflecting the severe economic disruptions caused by the pandemic and nationwide lockdowns.
