Billionbrains Garage Ventures, the parent of discount broking platform Groww, rose 3% in intraday deals on Tuesday, January 6, defying the tepid stock market mood after the domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal Financial Services (MOSL) initiated coverage on the stock with a ‘buy’ tag.
MOSL has pegged the target price for Groww shares at ₹185, signalling a 19% upside from its last closing price. However, this is below the all-time high of ₹193.91 that Groww touched in November 2025.
The company was listed on Dalal Street on November 12, 2025, at a premium of 14%, and continued to gain for five days straight.
Groww, which has become the largest retail broking platform within four years of its launch, holds a market share of 26.6%, almost 9% higher than its second-largest peer, and has benefited significantly from increased retail participation.
The combination of an underpenetrated, improving market infrastructure and evolving investor behaviour continues to reshape the industry landscape, reinforcing a long-term shift towards digital and low-cost brokerage platforms, said the brokerage.
What makes MOSL bullish on Groww?
Given Groww’s fast evolution from a niche mutual fund platform to a full-stack investment platform, MOSL sees strong revenue growth going ahead. The company’s strong product adoption over the years has led to a ~3x surge in its revenue from FY23 to FY25, which MOSL further expect to double over FY25-28.
“The company has built optional growth levers to diversify revenues and improve earnings quality. The rapid expansion of MTF, a fast-growing commodities franchise, along with the growth of the credit portfolio through LAS and the entry into wealth management, collectively reduces dependence on the volatile broking segment. This aids a structurally more resilient earnings profile,” it opined. Going ahead, it sees broking revenue contribution moderating to 64% in FY28 from 85% in FY25.
Meanwhile, a large part of Groww’s costs is fixed in nature, with only 9-10% of the costs being variable. This led to a robust operating margin of 59% in FY25. As incremental revenue scales across new businesses and fixed costs remain largely stable, MOSL also expect its EBITDA margin to expand to 68% by FY28.
Despite the regulatory action at the end of FY25 on F&O, MOSL expects Groww to report an earnings growth of 10% in FY26 and follow it up with a stronger growth of 50%/32% in FY27/FY28. It sees further F&O regulations and increased competitive intensity as key risks.
Bull-case scenario
In a bull-case scenario, the brokerage has pegged Groww’s share price target at ₹260, signalling a 67% growth from the last close. In this case, MOSL assumes an operating revenue CAGR of 33% over FY25-28 vs. the base case assumption of 25%.
Additionally, EBITDA is expected to clock a CAGR of 36% over FY25-28 vs. the base case assumption of 30%, with EBITDA margin at 68% in FY28 (66% in the base case). PAT is expected to clock a CAGR of 39% over FY25-28 vs. the base case assumption of 30%.
Disclaimer: This story is for educational purposes only. The views and recommendations expressed are those of individual analysts or broking firms, not Mint. We advise investors to consult with certified experts before making any investment decisions, as market conditions can change rapidly and circumstances may vary.
