Even before the latest developments in Caracas, forecasts from the International Energy Agency, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, and major investment banks were converging on a projected surplus of roughly 1.5 to two million barrels a day in 2026. That outlook follows a steep 20% decline in crude prices in 2025, as OPEC+ began unwinding production cuts and additional supply hit a market already showing signs of fatigue. As prices fell, the cartel slowed the pace of further adjustments and has more recently held output steadier, reducing its capacity—or willingness—to absorb new barrels.
