Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX), the country’s leading commodity derivatives exchange, extended its winning streak to a second consecutive session on Wednesday, December 31, with shares rallying 3% to the day’s high of ₹11,198 apiece. The gains came after media reports suggested that Morgan Stanley issued an upbeat outlook on the company.
According to CNBC TV-18, the global brokerage has turned more bullish on MCX, raising its target price to ₹11,135 from ₹6,710 earlier, and upgrading its rating to an ‘Equal weight.’ Mint could not independently verify this report.
The upgrade was driven by a sharp increase in the company’s average daily transaction revenue, supported by heightened price action across commodities, the report added.
Morgan Stanley expects this momentum to continue in the coming months and has lifted its earnings per share (EPS) forecasts by 15% for FY26, 20% for FY27, and 24% for FY28.
The brokerage noted that MCX shares are currently trading at 50x FY27E EPS and 47.5x FY28E EPS. If the current average daily transaction revenue (ADTR) is sustained at ₹104 million over FY27E–FY28E, the stock would trade at 35x price-to-earnings (P/E), representing a 5% premium to its long-term average.
MCX share price gains 80% in 2025
Although the company’s shares began the year on a tepid note, closing the first two months in the red, they picked up momentum in the subsequent months and went on to break record highs. MCX shares crossed the ₹10,000 milestone for the first time in mid-November and have continued to trade above this level since then.
Despite witnessing profit booking along the way, MCX shares have jumped 80% so far in 2025 — marking the third consecutive year of gains for the stock. It has emerged as one of the top performers among capital market stocks this year.
The strong rise in MCX shares has been driven by a significant increase in gold and silver trading volumes in recent months.
The continued rise in gold and silver prices has attracted more traders and investors to the market to hedge risks, speculate on price movements, or invest in precious metals. This, in turn, has boosted expectations of an improvement in the company’s revenue outlook.
MCX’s bullion contracts have scaled up rapidly following the shift to monthly expiry, gaining traction and helping diversify its revenue mix. Analysts at HDFC Securities expect bullion to contribute around 40% of total premium by Q4FY27E.
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